Subject: [NEWS] SKILL DROPS ON THURSAY

thank you terrion for your great insight on this topic.

I love this!! Well done, thanks terrion!!

I can add to this:
- at age 28 and 29 only pace drops (source: thousands of players who were on transfer market at the moment of Sunday drops... when it was on Sunday)
- other skills start to drop from age 30
- the older the player, the drops are higher (source: comparing value drops on Sunday between ALL the players in sokker)
- the chance that a player's value drops is about ~26% per drop update at ages 28 and 29 and about ~68% at >29yo
player's value drops = player drops in something, but it could be a VERY minimal drop, in skill decimal part

This is how much, on average, a player loses from his value in one drops update, X axis is the age:


This data was collected few months ago, I need to verify it again, but I don't think anything was changed with drops algorithm.
It's harder now to analyse it like that, because now drops are in the same update as training and form changes... but I'll see tomorrow what I can do about that :P

Hehe was not sending the messages but apparently they were being sent automatically. Just removed them

Ok...a nice graph, but imo the drops are too random!
You can say a player doesn't drop a ''whole'' skill, but he has the potential to drop between 0 and 50% on a skill each week, depending on age and random outcome.
So while one player might stay unearthly on pace untill he's 34, another might drop 3 times on pace before he's 31 and it's proven, drops have nothing to do with talent.
It's completely random.
I've had multiple cases where a player dropped in a skill while he has been training that skill for numerous weeks in a row.
And I also had a player who randommed to incredible pace with only formation training at age 36!

heard that pace is the first too dropp this player is strange

Daniel Luchian, alder: 37


formidabel [11] kondition tragisk [0] målmandsspil
guddommelig [17] hurtighed svag [4] tacklinger
genial [14] teknik udmærket [10] spilfordeling
acceptabel [6] pasninger genial [14] afslutninger

he has the potential to drop between 0 and 50% on a skill each week

yup

I have players that had 2 drops in 3-4 weeks

at the same time I have a 37yo with magical pace, dropped once so far in his career

The probability is increasing with the age. And, once hit, the drop also increases with the age

This way, the aging of each player is different and not so predictable

But, in the long run, all of them have to go home when they are between 35 and 40, more or less

I also think that drops are in some way connected with the training, but in reverse

what I mean is that we know pace to be dropping sooner and faster, with stamina dropping later and slower

the same way I believe passing&playmaker to drop much later/slower than pace, or def - same as it's faster to train than those

not much data on it...however I do have a 38yo who looked like this 52 weeks ago:

formidable [11] stamina tragic [0] keeper
brilliant [14] pace brilliant [14] defender
brilliant [14] technique unearthly [16] playmaker
unearthly [16] passing good [7] striker

this is how he looks now:

formidable [11] -0 stamina tragic [0] keeper
formidable [11] -3 pace formidable [11] -3 defender
incredible [13] -1 technique unearthly [16] -0 playmaker
unearthly [16] -0 passing adequate [6] -1 striker

Well, pace is trained like if the player was 2 years older, so it makes sense that it starts dropping 2 years before the rest of skills

Maybe the probability is also connected to this 2 years gap
(edited)