Subject: oSokker

Well. Imho linear regression deals pretty well with coaches imprecision. Some kind of exponencial or better logarithmic regression would be better.

example:
I have right now this player:
7 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 8

Lineair regression is 9,86

JR Plus makes it 6.78

How do you know which estimation is better? that 9 could be statistical discrepancy.

my sheet makes it:
Gill Landers 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 8
talent - (3,75) - 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
talent - (8) - 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

well you have a range between 3.75 (actually should be 4) and 8, but you have no idea what the talent is. And it still could be more than 8, so you still do not have the correct MAX

Linear regression calculates what could be the next actuall skill next week. And your excell sheet does not take it in the equation. This is why your max is 8.

I have another question.

When sorting in sokker it works from low to high. Is it possible to reverse that automaticly?

What exactly you want to sort? There is lot of sorting and it should work as you want. But maybe something doesnt. So you should just tell me what doesnt and i will check it.

"How do you know which estimation is better? that 9 could be statistical discrepancy."

In this case for a talent of 9 it should have 9 times 7 in a row. That is not likeable. (Rememeber that there is no high 7 for start in sokker)


"(actually should be 4)"

nope, it should be 3.75 because it is possible that 10 would be only 3 (pops in 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 etc)

"Linear regression calculates what could be the next actuall skill next week. And your excell sheet does not take it in the equation. This is why your max is 8. "

Nope LR and my sheet work with exact same base. My sheet is better in taking what next week can happen than LR because LR does not take sokkerfacts in calculation. (in fact it is the 9 in week 8 that takes it down to talent max at 8, and all 8s before that makes the talent of 3,75)

And yes the absolute max for this player is still max. because the coach has only given 7-9. and the absolute min is still the absolute min because it has only 12 numbers.
But my sheet works with formula's that a difference of 1 is more likable then a difference of 2.

As i said LR is ok, and it is the best single formala tu use. But if you make a formula that use sokker facts in it it could be better. It is too complex to use in aan add on. So for oSokker it is useless. (i compare the coachevaluation with over 1500 possibilities as i never find a good algorithm formula)

I use the coachevaluation and compare that with talentlines form -2 to +2 startingvalue with min talent of 3.125 and max talent of 10 (i do not think it is more info to know talent is 10 or for example 15)
every coachevaluation wil compared to those lines. if there is a difference of more then 2 the line will be not used.
a difference of 2 cost more points then a deifference of 1.
i count all points and then i search for lines with low cost (before week 15 or so i use also a bandwith) afther that i search for high and low talent with these numbers.

"but you have no idea what the talent is."

For this player, that is right. But give a single number like 6 or 4 or 8 there is no ground because all numbers bewteen 3.75 and 8 are evenly possible. That is the problem of this player. If next week he will have an 8 the sheet will say talent between 6 and 8. Will the coach say 9... i still have no clue. It still could be 3.75 or 8... i do not know and i believe no one can... :)
But i will repeat, it is in a bandtwith. sometimes it is possible to have actually a talent outside the estimation of the sheet. Everything that can be within the black lines (see picture below) is theoretical possible. (But LR or JR plus will give always only one number, and that is always a choice and does not take in considderation that there could be a lot more possibilities that are maybe have the same possibility)

edit:
picture of my sheet with this player

it is an extended version of the sheet i put above. But the numbers are the same.
(the reason why the low blackline is 7 is because of a choice. It works with lowest possible endnumber for the last given week, and not lowest possible talent. lowest possible talent is shown right under "minima")


---------------
example 2

LR = 5.6
JR+ = 5.2

my sheet = between 4.75* and 7

it is almost clear that the first 8 must be false.
but it is a guess to say first 7 is false or last 6 is false. You do not know that, so that is the reason for using the bandwith.


*4.66 does not exist in my sheet as i think the difference between 4.5 and 4.75 is small enough. How better the talent how more talentpossibilities.
(edited)

I have another question.

When sorting in sokker it works from low to high. Is it possible to reverse that automaticly?

What exactly you want to sort? There is lot of sorting and it should work as you want. But maybe something doesnt. So you should just tell me what doesnt and i will check it.

I am sorry :)

When i look on my playerspage and i sort for example on defending. Sokkers shows first low defending and then goes up. I have to click on the arrow every time. I would like an inversed result as standard.

I could disagree on a few things.
And i would have to know your exact algorithm to judge :-).
So we will close this discussion by saying, that i think LR is better. And you saying that your stylesheet is better. And to be conclusive: Noone's algorithm is exact :-).

ok, so default should be from 18-0 not 0-18. I'll look on that.

Thanks :)

(without discuss any further. @ other people: I had to edit my posts for JR plus data. I forgot to update it before posting. I only corrected those numbers. That is the reason why the numbers in my post and BZ quotes are different. :) )
(edited)

You can put in settings ,as an optin ,and let people choose 18 to 0 or 0 to 18.
Thank you

You like it as it is? 0-18 ?

i would like that also Blue. maybe have a checkbox within settings to be either 0-18 or 18-0

depend on what i need to search .....so its better as an option in settings

Ok, i'll come up with something ;-)

I think too, "18-0" is better in sorting. Everytime i sort my players, i want to see the highest, not the lowest.

And by the way, now the "est. level" is how percent correct? :)

How much weeks of data you have for that player?

osokker 0.1.21

hi ! osokker for firefox7beta! new version!
thaks ! good job !
good luck for all and good game !