Subject: little junior talent tool

I think there is also a directory for downloaded xml files... But why do you want to use this when you have Plus and you can use comfortably BlueZero's oSokker which calculates also junior talent based on linear regression?

yes, but I want to try it to explain how it works to people who isn't plus :)
or maybe, when my plus gets finished, what I have to do?

thankyou for visiting my club's page :P

hi rtg, nice to see you ;)

Here is a printscreen of my Excel sheet about one of my best youth players.



Blu line is trainer evaluations, black line is linear regression (estimated talent) and red line is real progression (estimated)...

... talent = 1/a, and with y=ax+b formula it's also possible to estimate final evalutaion (x=exit week)...

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so where can i download it then? If i cant then i dont really think you should be ridiculing someone elses attempt at a similar thing when they share it and you dont. Its like me sitting here and saying "sokker??? pffft i have programmed a much better site on my laptop but none of you are seeing it".

Very nice, thanx Milesteg!

Interesting...

@rtg: ... no comment... your observation is OT.

@milesteg27: Your tool uses the same linear regression function like my file Excel, but it's sure actually faster than mine during data import by xml files... so, very good job!

Only 2 technical question:
1) Why does it seem to use only last 14 evalutations? Is there a reason or is it a bug?
2) Using this function by myself, I noticed that this technique isn't so reliable. It needs a lot of evaluations (according to me at least 15), ad it seems to significantly change talent estimation during weeks even with just one/two evaluation more... what do you think about?

Thanks ;)

I use several techics in my own excelsheet

lineair regression
lineair regression with not using first 3 numbers (only usefull if a player plays all his games)
lineair regression based on median of 5 numbers so big fluctuations will not be used

and some other formula's

The reason why it is not realy reliable with only a few numbers is because the numbers are multi-interpretable


6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 could be easily what it says but 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 is also perfectly possible. From around 16 numbers the formula's got more reliable.
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... ok. if you have osokker and plus there is no need to use this tool.

@davornmar:
1) the tool is not well tested. i dont have a junior player who is 14 or more weeks in school. maybe its a bug.
2) if you estimate a hidden linear function linear regression is accepted statistic method to find it. reliable or not i dont know a better function.

something more:
the talent in pop weeks is calculated by 1/a where a is a*x + b in the not shown calculated linear function in the tool.
the tool needs a long time to start because the linear functions of ALL junior players your ever had in youthschool will be calculated every time on program start. thats not well programmed but i dont want to win a price :)

something more:
i had a problem. at the beginning of my youthschool i had no trainer => my juniors where estimated to zero skill. the zero values had bad influence of talent estimation => zero values will be ignored in the tool => bad predictuions for juniors fluctuating between 0 and higher values.
the week information art the x bar is fictitious. my english is not good. regards

From around 16 numbers the formula's got more reliable.

you're right! :)

thanks for you answer! ;)

I don't want to make new topic, I'm seeing that here a few people know an excel quite good. I have a question, how to make in excel the funcion [x] ?
it's mean, how to make excel to count e.g 4,6 as 4?

why would it count 4.6 as 4? it would always count it as 5. anyway lookup absolute numbers in excel help

In italian the function is "TRONCA"... in english I think it's "TRUNC"...

I think it's FLOOR

between 3° and 4° line in my excel sheet (see up), you could see the application of "TRUNC" function...

... it seems to be what The Manager asked...

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