Subject: New match engine discussion

First, I wish to respond to the post of guzh77 on 26/7 23:08:

I did a simulation on the results of a football match, where team A has 15 shots with 24% of scoring and team B has 6 shots with 18% of scoring. This is the first ten results: (1:0, 3:1, 3:2, 5:2, 2:1, 1:3, 1:1, 6:1, 1:2, 1:0)

Over 1000 match, team A won 847 times and team B won 53 times and there're 101 draws. The best results of team A is 10:0 while the worst is 0:4.

The ratio beween percentage of scoring correspond to the real life case between a top team and a bottom team and their value is tweaked a little higher to make the results more 'sokker-like'

Anyway, the point I wish to make is even with a clear advantage to one team, it's normal to have fluctuation in results when looking at a small sample of matches.

(I am a research postgraduate student in statistical physics so it's unlikely that my program is buggy, though you may dislike the percentage. Also in real life we don't see that much fluctuation as players' behavior are different with different scoreline and real context of the match, probably.)

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Second I want to point out that mathematics DOES NOT mean deterministic. Even with the same initial conditions (same players, form, tactics, etc.) it's a possible that the game go through completely different states (so that we see completely different matches), though in the end maybe there're some quantities tend to be similar (converge to a limit). For those interested, you may want to learn a bit on stochastic process.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_process

We can change parameters and prob. distribution function of random variables to make certain features of the match more 'predictable', but this is an issue of personal taste (how we want a sokker match looks like) rather than mathematics.

My personal view: Sokker has too many constraint like shortened match time and players' behavior independent of the context of the match, that make simulation of all features of real football very hard if not impossible. In general I think this ME is okay, but some features (or bugs) like movement of keepers, ball launching, penalty/empty goal conversion can certainly be improved.

I hope you don't find this post boring.

1. about random, i notice it is not random anymore. at least on my match. weaker team average mark always lose now. only one or two team can draw or win. (i think some one if has time should proof this by checking all match this weeks on 98 countries. we take sample sunday match and thursday arcade match. and see if it is true the ME not random anymore or still by see how many match win by stronger team on the same day, how many draw, and how many stronger team lost).

2. about throw in bug. what should it be?
when the 'receiver' of throw in is close to the 'thrower' then even superdivine technique players have problem to control the ball and it goes out of the pitch...

...or the receiver decides to pass the ball back to thrower...but even divine pm and divine passing 'receiver' can't actually make an accurate pass to the 'thrower' who is 3-4 meters away from him...

i am still not full understand about two paragraph above. did you mean, it should be:
A. when i throw in the ball to my friend, my friend must can control well that ball and that ball must not go out from the pitch.
B. when i throw in the ball to my friend, and he pass the ball again to me, his passing must on target to me who stand not far from him and he must not miss when passing the ball to me.
is it should be like A and B you want?

and guzh, from borkos007 post that you agree too, i note two things:
1. about ME random, and
2. about throw in.
correct?

i must say something about random
i never measure the result between a strong and a weak team
always i have in mind 2 same strong teams

i am still not full understand about two paragraph above. did you mean, it should be:
A. when i throw in the ball to my friend, my friend must can control well that ball and that ball must not go out from the pitch.
B. when i throw in the ball to my friend, and he pass the ball again to me, his passing must on target to me who stand not far from him and he must not miss when passing the ball to me.
is it should be like A and B you want?

yes, because these are activities that everyone who is not retarded will accomplish 99 times out of 100 tries. and we are talking about professional footballers, sometimes top level [divine/superdivine tech etc.] who are unable to do it. why? :)

great post

just want to know. who knows something change in the future about it.

Good post indeed, very well explained.

It was wery interesting! You have simulate "real tem" matches, I'm I correct?) Your pragram based on a players skills like sokker ( or something) or on other statistic or else values? Actualy I'm not agree with somme moments at the match, the probability of how they may finish and how it do finish in sokker. This moments has ther effect on a result. And so on. The example you may see lower on in borkos post. I think it may have positive impact if such a person that may do a statistic analise works with devs to analise the ME.

And about fluktuation on small amout of matches, like I sad befor it be good that bug gived 10 matches plyed by the tean at same time to a litle more of resalt and have more clear idea about sokker random.

And yes, mathematic doesn't mean deterministic. But retorning to sokjer whene a striker get trough 3 divine-superdivine defs that takle him almost together how many chancec do he have to get trough? Normaly it should end with a faull or striker lose the ball or pass it back. But in sokker he often gets trough! Like a hot knife trough the butter! And (to Freddy) it's one more point that we are agree with Borkos)

Regarding the methodology on the program: First, I assumed there're 1000 matches with shot ratio 15:6 (sample space). Then I assigned 15 variables which have 24% (percentage of scoring) having value of 1 (scored) and 76% having value of 0 (not scored), adding them up led to the score of team A. (It can be done by a standard procedure which involve generating random numbers with uniform distribution) Using similar method (15-->6, 24%-->18%) I got the score of team B so that I obtained the scoreline of one match. Repeating 1000 times, I got the results.

The percentage 24% and 18% are values based partly on real life and partly tweaked to make results more 'sokker-like'. So it's a little subjective. Anyway, they're just parameters and it's very easy to change them in the program. The message is simple: From match to match, scoreline can fluctuate a lot (large variance). But the stronger team eventually won the most matches. (It's also reasonably easy to be shown analytically using rigorous mathematics but I don't have the motivation to do this)

I also observed that some moments the probability of scoring is inappropriate, like penalties and against empty goal, but I don't have time to do counting to back me up. As stated in my previous post, I dislike many of the bad decision making by players you all have mentioned.

No one except the DEVs can possibly know what's the average percentage of scoring of say a magical striker against a divine keeper, or what's the average percentage of an unearthly defender successfully tackle a brilliant techniqued striker from front. I'm not 100% sure, most likely they are based on parameters input by human and can be easily changed. But then whether to change them is a question not easy to answer. Testing and correspondance to real life stats are needed. Bad decision making by players like passing out of bound from throw-in and launching the ball when one shouldn't, are harder to change without unwanted side effects.

interesting...

But then whether to change them is a question not easy to answer
we all know about the form of the player that can drop to 0 and not rise... and it can't be fixed since the beginning of sokker... so for sure is not simple...

Well this form thingy is something I think is good for the game experience!
Forces you to abandon a beloved player if he "sticks" being out of form.

... Or keep him and wait of course ;)

Hard decisions make a game i feel.

people dont like statistics though ;)
even with proof you cant argue with people who say "my team is better why did i lose?"

It would be nice if we had like 30-40 games in one season.
Then surprises will don't have big matter. Atm you can be 1st and fight for promote or 5th and playing for staying in league, with same squad cause ME will make you lose games you suppose to win.
What is point of this?

CLICK
Here is better example that ME is bad. Someone played game: his team vs his team, stats are messed cause both sides got same. But result show all, teams are 100% same and score 4:1.

I've beaten myself 3:2 :p

still, imagine Barca vs Barca, identical players

imo it wouldn't finish with draw ;) 4:1 / 1:4 would be quite probable...

The worst thing is when this me dont mesure the skills
i want an answer from abcde,if he can of course to say
if is possible the players playing according to their skills
is a train and tactical game after all
if the devs they cant give us this,then ok,we know what kind of game is
and i think after we dont have many complains
But if they can,they must start soon to fix this
(edited)