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Subject: »Really bad juniors!*NO ADS*
ok it took me 10 minutes on this slow pc to find one of my juniors and to make a screen and upload it but you made me damn angry :)
That doesn't prove range -+3 (unless we use different definitions of range). It's just a drop of 3. That can also happen with a range of +-2.
In fact I'd say the actual range is not important. It's not very likely that your coach is wrong by 3 levels (with magical coach), because otherwise you would frequently see jumps and drops of 4-5. Based on observing finished junior players and some analysis of the data I'd say the coach is within +-1 of the real skill most of the times - whatever "most of the times" means :)
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In fact I'd say the actual range is not important. It's not very likely that your coach is wrong by 3 levels (with magical coach), because otherwise you would frequently see jumps and drops of 4-5. Based on observing finished junior players and some analysis of the data I'd say the coach is within +-1 of the real skill most of the times - whatever "most of the times" means :)
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what do you mean different definitions. Its a pure range or interval in other word. Did you ever seen 4 drop or increase? It's not like often it will be +-2 but min -3 max +3. I don't understand that different definition. Anyway I have magical coach.
he means that a range -2/+2 has a width of four levels.
In your graphic there's no evidence of existence of a -3/+3 range (six levels)
to be clearer:
when he's at level 8 prediction is +1;
when he drop to 5 prediction is -2;
the range is -2/+2 even if the drop is of 3 levels
(edited)
In your graphic there's no evidence of existence of a -3/+3 range (six levels)
to be clearer:
when he's at level 8 prediction is +1;
when he drop to 5 prediction is -2;
the range is -2/+2 even if the drop is of 3 levels
(edited)
then maybe I wrongly understood first question. interval [-3;+3] is the max coach can "lie" in 1 week. ok thats clear then. Nobel prize for anyone who can find 5-6 level range :))
edit: but then charles was right? very good can be adequate? considering my screen. I could have pulled him when he was 8 but after a week he was 5 or its a coach lie?
Ok then I guess it was a coach lie.
(edited)
edit: but then charles was right? very good can be adequate? considering my screen. I could have pulled him when he was 8 but after a week he was 5 or its a coach lie?
Ok then I guess it was a coach lie.
(edited)
but then charles was right? very good can be adequate?
nope
nope
does anyone know someone who has lower level youth coach and how much variance there is?
if someone has outstanding coach will this be +3/-3?
if someone has outstanding coach will this be +3/-3?
Few seasons ago we collect data in france. Using sum of errors in each clubs for each juniors (if he down or +2+3 ups)
Results :
Brilliant : 35% errors (one junior for 3 is poorly evaluated each week)
Magic : 32% errors
underneath : 25 % errors (not enough data for this level)
Results :
Brilliant : 35% errors (one junior for 3 is poorly evaluated each week)
Magic : 32% errors
underneath : 25 % errors (not enough data for this level)
good info indeed.
specifies how often they are wrong.
still doesnt answer my question about how wrong they can be.
also the accuracy is supposed to improve over time. i find after maybe 10 weeks there is not much variation in it and you can see clear graph of talent mostly
specifies how often they are wrong.
still doesnt answer my question about how wrong they can be.
also the accuracy is supposed to improve over time. i find after maybe 10 weeks there is not much variation in it and you can see clear graph of talent mostly
nor how number of matches played influences estimation, but still valuable info