Subject: NEWS Sokker- big changes are coming!

Of course if you restrict prices to >10M you will get the average a bit higher than that 10M

I did nothing else than "trades above 10M" or basically "top skilled players, whatever ages, positions".
Lets say that prices drop under 10M, those trades are not take into account it doesn't influence avg price. Finally, less trades above 10M and average price is lower, globally it's the same trend as your top striker requests.
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Prices rice after reform, prices fell after tax. End of story.

Maybe not. While it seems obvious that prices tends to decrease on olders (top or not) it was more interesting to look at youngers (see my #1 graphic).
I have the feeling that price inflation (after the reform) is not yet behind us, it's still slowly continuing with youngers, and the result is the exact opposite of what the devs wanted (to stimulate competition). Nah, farming is much better ! End of story :-)

I seriously can't understand the way you think

out of top 90 highest transfers of 16yo players, 72 of them were in s66-69 / 18 of them were in s70-73 - that's 80% vs 20%!!

and it's the same in every age group

17yos - ZERO players from S73 in top 30, ZERO players in top60, ONE players in top 90

18yos - 1 in top 30 (#28), 1 in top 60, 2 in top 90

and yet you claim that the prices of youngsters are.... going up?

I'm concentrated on the 16-18yo market since ~10 seasons
the prices especially this season dropped DRASTICALLY and the farming & making money NOW is much worse than before

juytts' observation is correct, of course: we cannot make general conclusions from such small/restricted sample. We need a larger sample.

So I did my own calculations...

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GOAL
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To study changes in players' prices throughout the last seasons.

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METHODOLOGY
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> Mikoos' Database (DB) was used to obtain transfers' data.
> Top sales for each season were compared. And for each season, sales were categorized by age.
> Filters used:
- Seasons 60-73 (because that's what's available in the DB)
- Weeks 1-10 only (because we want to compare with current season)
- Top 200 sales were considered (no specific reason for this number in particular, we just need a large sample)
- Ages considered: 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 30, 32 years old (no specific reason for the ages selected)

For each scenario (Season/Age), an Average Price was calculated for the Top 200 sales.
Those Average Prices were then represented in a Line Graph for comparison.

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RESULTS
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[url=https://flic.kr/p/2r6ZJFa][/url]

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DISCUSSION
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> Season 64 reached peak prices in most scenarios.
> Currently, there is a clear trend of prices going down in all scenarios.
> Current prices seem to be similar to Season 60-61, before the League Reform (S61).
> Note that it also happened in Season 70 that prices dropped significantly (same as current season), therefore we cannot conclude that current drop will be permanent. Prices might go up again.
> 19yo and 28yo reached their lowest Average Price this season.

@juytts
Your #1 graphic is coherent with my graphic for 16yo (similar trends in yours and mine).
But the difference is that I included data from Season 73. There is a big drop there.

I have recently pulled magical junior - best czech 18y mid. I advertised him on czech forums and all the replies I got were like "The player is really great but unfortunately I have full training spots". Few seasons ago there would be a huge fight for him between czech users. But now people got lazy and just dont buy, dont sell, only train forever unless they get bored and sell everyone and start again. Training reform combined with taxes killed the markets.

Nice. I think the difference would be even much bigger if you concentrated on highest 30-50 transfers. It's much easier to have ~3m euro than ~15m euro, I believe the sudden deflation hit the highest valued players in biggest way. I might be wrong though.

Would be great if you could provide such graph but for Top 30 transfers average based on age/season (if you can make it automatically/semi-auto and it's not a big bother for you).
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Nice chart

I like how scenarios seems at season 64.

Nowadays according to the chart, prime players 25-28 yo are sold half price to what was at a 64

Also young players now have an average of 2M whiles top prime players 4M... Ridiculous
(edited)

and yet you claim that the prices of youngsters are.... going up?

Am I saying that?

"I have the feeling that price inflation (after the reform) is not yet behind us, it's still slowly continuing with youngers."

Having a feeling, is not a claim, right ?
Looking at my first request (16 years above 1M) prices seem stable; which basically means that inflation hasn't gone away, or still slowly continuing as you want. Did I said it's going up? Nope.

Once said, I didnt investigates much more.

I seriously can't understand the way you think

You are focusing on highest sells and to conclude that prices are falling DRASTICALLY.
Your "80% vs 20%!!" could be part of my own request (graphic #1. 16y 1M€+) but well, I am looking on bigger pictures. That's "the way I think".

But the difference is that I included data from Season 73. There is a big drop there.

Season 73 is not yet finish ;-) Maybe it will stay like that in the end, but mechanically there are much more 16y with higher levels at end of season ;-)

EDIT : oh ok, until week 10...
(edited)

Maybe only those "very special" players can be negotiated at high prices nowadays... I care a little cause I may have some of them.

Are everyone forgetting how many clubs did go trough reconstruction few seasons ago before tax introduction? They all bought 16-18y players so they can select only best talents and sell worse talents without paying taxes! Now they are training those players and demand is lower as noone want to screw up their longterm plan. I started over 2 years ago, and some of first players I bought for longterm training are now 23-24yo (and not yet fully trained)!

it doesn't change the fact that globally prices decreasing and volume of trades is quite stable, whatever ages (without seeking on top of "something"). Those who bought for the long term, thinking they were making a good investment, may be disappointed. At least they will loose less money than investing in top senior players :-)