Subject: NEWS Sokker- big changes are coming!

it doesn't change the fact that globally prices decreasing and volume of trades is quite stable, whatever ages (without seeking on top of "something"). Those who bought for the long term, thinking they were making a good investment, may be disappointed. At least they will loose less money than investing in top senior players :-)

Actually, I can't be disappointed in any way (longterm)! :)

age: 24 - 4 000€
age: 23 - 13 000€
age: 22 - 133 000€
age: 21 - YS
age: 20 - 135 000€
age: 20 - 6 000€
age: 20 - YS
age: 18 - YS
age: 18 - 218 212€
age: 16 - 143 000€

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-652 212€

profit/loss: 17 864 652 €
(edited)

Yeah, farming is BEST !

As requested, I made another graph considering only Top 30 sales.

Since this time the samples are smaller, I was careful to check if there were weird transfers. I noticed two:
> Ákos Újfalusi (143.800.000 €)
> Marek Muzikant (91.333.105 €)

Both were excluded: (1) the first transfer was actually reversed; (2) and the player from the second transfer does not even exist anymore.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2r7ecym][/url]


And here the original Graphic for comparison purposes.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2r6ZJFa][/url]

Thank you, huge dip in prices of 16-18yo…

Its not a "huge dip" in term of trends at 16y (equal 2 seasons ago, higher than 10 seasons ago);
Also, the current season is not ending, we should consider those "huge dip" carefully until the end; around 20% of trades are mades end of season.

End of season trades will probably only Prove the point further, since they are normally lower then start season

Maybe or maybe not, 20% of trades it's a lot to influence avg prices.

According to my own database (*much less exhaustive than Mikoo's), we're currently at 5% of transactions after week 10, which is normal, but leaves plenty of room to reach the ‘expected’ 20%.
However, if this is confirmed, not only will prices fall, but the market will collapse (price and volume)

[url=https://imgbb.com/][/url]
(edited)

+1

But well... you need to follow the transfer market to understant that...

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From my database - Blue is trades in weeks 1-10, green is trades in weeks 11-13, seems pretty stable

According to my own database (*much less exhaustive than Mikoo's)
There is a massive problem with your database - for some reason you've made a field with pid unique, so you can never have more than one transfer for a player stored, I guess that's a reason why you miss so many transfers?

Yep, I miss them a lot, but mainly because it's a cron job and not a regular one. Thanks for your tip (pid), and your graph ;-)

Have there been any changes to the junior draws?

I'm on my tenth draw in a row without any 16-year-olds, maybe it's just bad luck (probability is very low) or am i not the only one ?
(edited)

17
2 (unsatisfactory)

18
2 (unsatisfactory)

17
5 (average)

18
2 (unsatisfactory)

Better now as when players get older! ;)

sure.

Those are my 4 last weeks draws :

Marin Mousset 18 2 (unsatisfactory) outfield
Elie Manceau 18 2 (unsatisfactory)

Pierre-Alexandre Binet 18 3 (poor)
Bérenger Belver 18 5 (average)
Jean-Philippe Lechantre 18 2 (unsatisfactory)
Hassan Cheuva 17 4 (weak)
Jérome Claude 18 1 (hopeless) gk
Wissam Cheron 17 2 (unsatisfactory)

Julien Canu 18 6 (adequate)
Bertrand Gonnet 18 6 (adequate)

Ken Koczur 18 4 (weak)
Yvan Letellier 18 7 (good)

In pure random, 12 draws in a row, probability to not having any 16y is (2/3)^12, around 0,6% chances.
In one hand, it's possibly my very bad luck, in other hand, it's not pure random.