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Subject: »Future NT stars (U21) NO ADS
No he cant. There was never reported a 1 or 2 week pop to solid in old system.
I have just found a screen shot from old youth school system, which ruines your "10/3 theory".
https://images29.fotosik.pl/283/a93b0ae3ad715b7d.jpg
https://images29.fotosik.pl/283/a93b0ae3ad715b7d.jpg
no, I don't have it. I don't have plus and Sokker asistente doesn't let me take the graph (or I don't know how to do it).
No it doesn't... You had a formidable coach... Big difference with magical, no?
No it doesn't... You had a formidable coach... Big difference with magical, no?
What are you talking about? Have you seen Gido's 10/3 theory?
I always divide by 10/3 to calc real skill.
In this example 40 divided by 10/3 is 12,000000, but the junior level is 13.0.
What are you talking about? Have you seen Gido's 10/3 theory?
I always divide by 10/3 to calc real skill.
In this example 40 divided by 10/3 is 12,000000, but the junior level is 13.0.
I have just found a screen shot from old youth school system, which ruines your "10/3 theory".
"ruines" is a strong word.
We can't say that based on an example. Just one.
As I can't confirm my "10/3 theory" just due to this 16yo guy.
I just say it's credible.
I can believe in dasanchez86, because (at least) one theory shows me it's not impossible.
Other theory(s) shows other thing(s).
Which one is correct?
We don't know.
To discover, we should get tons of data. Hundreds, thousands.
And maybe we won't find.
So every theory could be right.
And every theory could be in "ruins".
(edited)
"ruines" is a strong word.
We can't say that based on an example. Just one.
As I can't confirm my "10/3 theory" just due to this 16yo guy.
I just say it's credible.
I can believe in dasanchez86, because (at least) one theory shows me it's not impossible.
Other theory(s) shows other thing(s).
Which one is correct?
We don't know.
To discover, we should get tons of data. Hundreds, thousands.
And maybe we won't find.
So every theory could be right.
And every theory could be in "ruins".
(edited)
seems like neither of You guys are taking sub skills of a player into consideration with Your formulas and that is the part that can have a huge effect on an estimation, especially at lower junior levels.
for instance, it is actually possible for a 8 x tragic (8 * 0,90) player to have a higher overall YS skill then a 7 x tragic (0,00) + 1 x good player (7,00).
I'm personally using (skillsum + 4) / 3.5 to determine the junior skill of a fresh pull but keeping in mind that those +4 can vary anywhere between 0,00 and 7,92 and there is no sure way to tell how much hidden skill points player has in sub skills.
So, if that 26 skill sum 16 yo has really low sub skills there is still some doubt that he is not nowhere top talent. Assuming the sum of his sub skills could be just 1 whole skill he's level would be just 7,7 (27/3.5) and taking into consideration that he was two weeks in school with a possibility of entering with a highest possible entry level, he's talent could be somewhere around 5 in worst case scenario. of course, statistically is more likely that he's talent is amazing and guy would become a monster one day but just as an example that making assumptions based on some factors which are absolutely impossible to estimate could sometimes lead to a terrible misconception in a isolated case.
(edited)
for instance, it is actually possible for a 8 x tragic (8 * 0,90) player to have a higher overall YS skill then a 7 x tragic (0,00) + 1 x good player (7,00).
I'm personally using (skillsum + 4) / 3.5 to determine the junior skill of a fresh pull but keeping in mind that those +4 can vary anywhere between 0,00 and 7,92 and there is no sure way to tell how much hidden skill points player has in sub skills.
So, if that 26 skill sum 16 yo has really low sub skills there is still some doubt that he is not nowhere top talent. Assuming the sum of his sub skills could be just 1 whole skill he's level would be just 7,7 (27/3.5) and taking into consideration that he was two weeks in school with a possibility of entering with a highest possible entry level, he's talent could be somewhere around 5 in worst case scenario. of course, statistically is more likely that he's talent is amazing and guy would become a monster one day but just as an example that making assumptions based on some factors which are absolutely impossible to estimate could sometimes lead to a terrible misconception in a isolated case.
(edited)
totaly agree with you, 16yo are tricky, they can be superstars or blunder, and there is no way you can estimate their talent this early in season...
For sure he is close to very good, he is 16 and well distributed...
There are some clues about good talent!!!
Si he is priceless!!!
There are some clues about good talent!!!
Si he is priceless!!!
Well if take subskills into consideration you should remember that it is 8 skills, and therefore most juniors Will have 0,4-0,6 and almost all 0,3-0,7....
And if your want more into consideration, remember Then that stamina cost more of the total skillssum (this was confirmed in a quote from greg), which in this case does it even more impossible to been only in junior School only 2weeks...
And if your want more into consideration, remember Then that stamina cost more of the total skillssum (this was confirmed in a quote from greg), which in this case does it even more impossible to been only in junior School only 2weeks...
Well if take subskills into consideration you should remember that it is 8 skills
and that is why I'm adding +4 to the overall skill sum (8 x 0.5 for expected average sub skill value in each skill).
, and therefore most juniors Will have 0,4-0,6 and almost all 0,3-0,7....
I tend to believe that skill progression in YS is similar like a normal training so there is same chance for particular sub skill to be anywhere between x.00 and x.99.
And if your want more into consideration, remember Then that stamina cost more of the total skillssum (this was confirmed in a quote from greg)
I'm aware of that but I don't think the effect is not near 1.5 and calculating stamina like 1.2 or so would just complicate calculation, I rather keep it at 1.00 as some kind of a buffer in case other estimations in the formula are somewhat off...
The most concerning assumption in my formula (beside the fact that formula may not be linear at all :) ) is a presumption that each full skill in YS is worth somewhat around 3.5 skill points. But I think Barbez should be a solid proof that it can't be lower then that. Assuming he was pulled as superdivine and knowing that he had below average but not completely blank sub skills when pulled, 62 skill sum at the moment he was pulled pretty much ensures that he was gaining at least 3.5 points for every skill in YS even in a worst case scenario.
(edited)
and that is why I'm adding +4 to the overall skill sum (8 x 0.5 for expected average sub skill value in each skill).
, and therefore most juniors Will have 0,4-0,6 and almost all 0,3-0,7....
I tend to believe that skill progression in YS is similar like a normal training so there is same chance for particular sub skill to be anywhere between x.00 and x.99.
And if your want more into consideration, remember Then that stamina cost more of the total skillssum (this was confirmed in a quote from greg)
I'm aware of that but I don't think the effect is not near 1.5 and calculating stamina like 1.2 or so would just complicate calculation, I rather keep it at 1.00 as some kind of a buffer in case other estimations in the formula are somewhat off...
The most concerning assumption in my formula (beside the fact that formula may not be linear at all :) ) is a presumption that each full skill in YS is worth somewhat around 3.5 skill points. But I think Barbez should be a solid proof that it can't be lower then that. Assuming he was pulled as superdivine and knowing that he had below average but not completely blank sub skills when pulled, 62 skill sum at the moment he was pulled pretty much ensures that he was gaining at least 3.5 points for every skill in YS even in a worst case scenario.
(edited)
