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Subject: Should Germany drop the Euro?!
Exactly. That's what's important. It's never about the money even when the money is the only topic. The original idea of EU is what should drive the whole deal and not the economical issues. They only need to be adapted in a way that is most fair and ideal for everyone involved. And this can only be done by trustworthy approach. No good solutions will ever be reached if there are constant accusations about others working on their own agenda. Economic and political instability and insecurity that we have right now is the worst possible price and it's paid by everyone. Not to mention what could be the aftermath if the situation escalates.
I really don't understand how can anyone be against the monetary union combined with a strict fiscal discipline rules equal for everyone. The benefits of common currency are enormous and it is crucial for every country that its government spends within sustainable limits. These are both good things. Monetary union without strict fiscal discipline is like a piggy bank for the irresponsible. It's tragically absurd how anyone ever thought that it could work without it.
I really don't understand how can anyone be against the monetary union combined with a strict fiscal discipline rules equal for everyone. The benefits of common currency are enormous and it is crucial for every country that its government spends within sustainable limits. These are both good things. Monetary union without strict fiscal discipline is like a piggy bank for the irresponsible. It's tragically absurd how anyone ever thought that it could work without it.
Current account balance has 2 sides: import and export. Having a positive balance only means that a country is able to produce more goods and services than it needs by itself and that those that it produces for export are competitive enough to be marketed abroad.
LOL.
do you see the graph?
it tell it all.
don't look only at germany, look the others..
anyway if you produce something inside you don't buy it nomore from outside..
IT'S EXSACLTY THE SAME!!!
LOL.
do you see the graph?
it tell it all.
don't look only at germany, look the others..
anyway if you produce something inside you don't buy it nomore from outside..
IT'S EXSACLTY THE SAME!!!
I really don't understand how can anyone be against the monetary union combined with a strict fiscal discipline rules equal for everyone.
because it's killing us (PIIGS countries).
In Italy right now youth unemploument is over 35%!!!!
How do you think we will handle this?
And why? To have more taxes to pay more debts, decided by Deutsch bank? To avoid infaltion we need to have??
because it's killing us (PIIGS countries).
In Italy right now youth unemploument is over 35%!!!!
How do you think we will handle this?
And why? To have more taxes to pay more debts, decided by Deutsch bank? To avoid infaltion we need to have??
Wil be much worse for europe if germany leaves now, including germany itself idf you ask me.
On the short run, yes. On the long run, no ;-)
we do need a real political union and financial union
You can't always get what you need. Some countries will never give up this kind of sovereignty.
On the short run, yes. On the long run, no ;-)
we do need a real political union and financial union
You can't always get what you need. Some countries will never give up this kind of sovereignty.
LOL.
do you see the graph?
it tell it all.
don't look only at germany, look the others..
Here is the data that makes your graph in US$ per capita:
Germany Exports Imports Difference Share I/E Exp growth Imp growth
2007 16.431,84 13.045,96 3.385,88 79% 20% 15%
2006 13.723,82 11.333,38 2.390,44 83% 11% 17%
2005 12.319,72 9.712,69 2.607,03 79% 21% 17%
2003 8.443,08 7.087,39 1.355,69 84% 15% 20%
2002 7.368,98 5.906,09 1.462,89 80%
Spain Exports Imports Difference Share I/E Exp growth Imp growth
2007 6.346,39 9.399,68 -3.053,29 148% 28% 29%
2006 4.971,72 7.281,91 -2.310,19 146% 11% 16%
2005 4.477,15 6.262,94 -1.785,79 140% 9% 16%
2003 3.794,83 4.692,35 -897,52 124% 28% 24%
2002 2.957,84 3.790,49 -832,65 128%
Italy Exports Imports Difference Share I/E Exp growth Imp growth
2007 8.566,11 8.640,06 -73,95 101% 17% 21%
2006 7.319,32 7.121,27 198,05 97% 16% 12%
2005 6.299,58 6.345,65 -46,07 101% 16% 15%
2003 4.706,22 4.827,74 -121,52 103% 13% 6%
2002 4.167,44 4.534,85 -367,41 109%
So, as you can see by the share of import in export and their growth rates, trends have been pretty simmilar in all 3 countries and the structure of current account balance has not changed significantly except for Spain which has deepened its imbalance in period 2004-2006. Imbalance in Spain is probably caused by tourism because internal consumption is accelerated by tourists visiting the country.
So, increase in Germany's current account balance is a mere consequence of the growing volume of both its import and export. Germany's import's share in export remained at around 80% during that period.
Do you understand now?
anyway if you produce something inside you don't buy it nomore from outside..
IT'S EXSACLTY THE SAME!!!
Now that I read this, I don't think you can understand anything. This is so stupid that it hurts. This would be true only if price, quality, distribution and promotion of all the products in the world would be the same. If you plan to learn something about it, you might want to start from this:
(edited)
do you see the graph?
it tell it all.
don't look only at germany, look the others..
Here is the data that makes your graph in US$ per capita:
Germany Exports Imports Difference Share I/E Exp growth Imp growth
2007 16.431,84 13.045,96 3.385,88 79% 20% 15%
2006 13.723,82 11.333,38 2.390,44 83% 11% 17%
2005 12.319,72 9.712,69 2.607,03 79% 21% 17%
2003 8.443,08 7.087,39 1.355,69 84% 15% 20%
2002 7.368,98 5.906,09 1.462,89 80%
Spain Exports Imports Difference Share I/E Exp growth Imp growth
2007 6.346,39 9.399,68 -3.053,29 148% 28% 29%
2006 4.971,72 7.281,91 -2.310,19 146% 11% 16%
2005 4.477,15 6.262,94 -1.785,79 140% 9% 16%
2003 3.794,83 4.692,35 -897,52 124% 28% 24%
2002 2.957,84 3.790,49 -832,65 128%
Italy Exports Imports Difference Share I/E Exp growth Imp growth
2007 8.566,11 8.640,06 -73,95 101% 17% 21%
2006 7.319,32 7.121,27 198,05 97% 16% 12%
2005 6.299,58 6.345,65 -46,07 101% 16% 15%
2003 4.706,22 4.827,74 -121,52 103% 13% 6%
2002 4.167,44 4.534,85 -367,41 109%
So, as you can see by the share of import in export and their growth rates, trends have been pretty simmilar in all 3 countries and the structure of current account balance has not changed significantly except for Spain which has deepened its imbalance in period 2004-2006. Imbalance in Spain is probably caused by tourism because internal consumption is accelerated by tourists visiting the country.
So, increase in Germany's current account balance is a mere consequence of the growing volume of both its import and export. Germany's import's share in export remained at around 80% during that period.
Do you understand now?
anyway if you produce something inside you don't buy it nomore from outside..
IT'S EXSACLTY THE SAME!!!
Now that I read this, I don't think you can understand anything. This is so stupid that it hurts. This would be true only if price, quality, distribution and promotion of all the products in the world would be the same. If you plan to learn something about it, you might want to start from this:
(edited)
I see only prejeduce from him, he just wants to blame someone and obviously its germany. Cant argue with that , so I dont even bother anymore.
I see only prejeduce from him, he just wants to blame someone and obviously its germany.
I won't answer sasha nomore after his post, with fantasy datas.. without even knowing what a "account balance" is..
and with a fantasyland ideas of economics, etc.
To you I will only ask, do you really think I blame Germany for our crisis?
NO, it's surely a sum of the errors made by us and our govs in years and years!
BUT NOW, we need something different than what Germany (and its satellite countries) needs.
Our exit from euro is only a question of time, our debt can be paid only with inflaction help, otherwise we won't pay it..
Greece will come first than every country will think for himself.
The euro failure is a political one (no democracy in economics in EU, nobody voting for nothing of real interest, not a prospective of getting ONE country... people start to remember the old "no taxation without representation"!) but before to burn out our future do you think we will just seat and look what BCE or Monti will tell us to do?
for the rest, I think that if you don't look things by inside you may can believe the official information about this crisis of debt and public balance in Italy.
But it's all a lie.
This crisis didn't came out of a greece style politics (we had a enourmous debt, but we were able to pay its rate, our public balance was ok.. etc)
If you try to find out how comes our debt (italian) got a risky one, you won't be able to understand it.. (for example UK is in a worst situation as debt and as indistrial crisis but they has not those problems)
I'll tell you: Deustch Bank stop buying Italian debt one day, waited few days, its payment rate obviously growed a lot, than restarted to buy it.
After it Berlusconi was sacked (thanks God!) and we have the old Goldman Sach's counsilior for Europe (monti) as prime minister...
Why we can't avoid this speculation from our big brother Germany? Because we can't have a monetary politics we need!!!
Well, I want my monetary sovereignty back!
I won't answer sasha nomore after his post, with fantasy datas.. without even knowing what a "account balance" is..
and with a fantasyland ideas of economics, etc.
To you I will only ask, do you really think I blame Germany for our crisis?
NO, it's surely a sum of the errors made by us and our govs in years and years!
BUT NOW, we need something different than what Germany (and its satellite countries) needs.
Our exit from euro is only a question of time, our debt can be paid only with inflaction help, otherwise we won't pay it..
Greece will come first than every country will think for himself.
The euro failure is a political one (no democracy in economics in EU, nobody voting for nothing of real interest, not a prospective of getting ONE country... people start to remember the old "no taxation without representation"!) but before to burn out our future do you think we will just seat and look what BCE or Monti will tell us to do?
for the rest, I think that if you don't look things by inside you may can believe the official information about this crisis of debt and public balance in Italy.
But it's all a lie.
This crisis didn't came out of a greece style politics (we had a enourmous debt, but we were able to pay its rate, our public balance was ok.. etc)
If you try to find out how comes our debt (italian) got a risky one, you won't be able to understand it.. (for example UK is in a worst situation as debt and as indistrial crisis but they has not those problems)
I'll tell you: Deustch Bank stop buying Italian debt one day, waited few days, its payment rate obviously growed a lot, than restarted to buy it.
After it Berlusconi was sacked (thanks God!) and we have the old Goldman Sach's counsilior for Europe (monti) as prime minister...
Why we can't avoid this speculation from our big brother Germany? Because we can't have a monetary politics we need!!!
Well, I want my monetary sovereignty back!
I won't answer sasha nomore after his post, with fantasy datas.. without even knowing what a "account balance" is..
and with a fantasyland ideas of economics, etc.
LOL What do you think? That I invented these numbers? :D
You wish it was fantasy data so that you can keep basing your ideas on your imagination. Here's my source. This link is for Italy's exports per capita but you can easily check all the other numbers I used.
And I know current account is not only imports minus exports. If detailed data was available, I would use them. But imports minus exports make usually more than 80% of current account so my data is close enough. Here's a proof (check top of page 3). And as you can see, the rest of current account balance are usually net income from foreign investments which is basically also results of the same export companies with the same export products and services simply going closer to their foreign customers or diversifying their investments in search of better cost effectiveness. Again, it all comes down to their products quality + cost efficiency = competitiveness.
So, I showed you exactly what drives the graph you posted. It has nothing to do with inflation nor Euro currency. It's simply the consequence of the growing volumes of both import and export while Export/Import coverage is kept relatively stable. Nobody is forcing Italy and Spain to import so many products and services and accumulate more and more debt to finance this consumption. And the causes of unemployment are always the same: too many jobhunters and too few jobgivers, i.e. entrepreneurs. If you think that inflation will make people become entrepreneurs, you are very naive. Bad weather will make more of them much sooner ;).
You are now calling for inflation only to reduce the amount of debt you took upon yourself. You have spent other people's money and now you refuse to give it back. Sell government property, lay-off in public sector, tax rich people, fight corruption and you will balance your government budget and be able to pay back your debt. Clean your backyard first and the interest will surely be decreased.
and with a fantasyland ideas of economics, etc.
LOL What do you think? That I invented these numbers? :D
You wish it was fantasy data so that you can keep basing your ideas on your imagination. Here's my source. This link is for Italy's exports per capita but you can easily check all the other numbers I used.
And I know current account is not only imports minus exports. If detailed data was available, I would use them. But imports minus exports make usually more than 80% of current account so my data is close enough. Here's a proof (check top of page 3). And as you can see, the rest of current account balance are usually net income from foreign investments which is basically also results of the same export companies with the same export products and services simply going closer to their foreign customers or diversifying their investments in search of better cost effectiveness. Again, it all comes down to their products quality + cost efficiency = competitiveness.
So, I showed you exactly what drives the graph you posted. It has nothing to do with inflation nor Euro currency. It's simply the consequence of the growing volumes of both import and export while Export/Import coverage is kept relatively stable. Nobody is forcing Italy and Spain to import so many products and services and accumulate more and more debt to finance this consumption. And the causes of unemployment are always the same: too many jobhunters and too few jobgivers, i.e. entrepreneurs. If you think that inflation will make people become entrepreneurs, you are very naive. Bad weather will make more of them much sooner ;).
You are now calling for inflation only to reduce the amount of debt you took upon yourself. You have spent other people's money and now you refuse to give it back. Sell government property, lay-off in public sector, tax rich people, fight corruption and you will balance your government budget and be able to pay back your debt. Clean your backyard first and the interest will surely be decreased.
the rest is incommentable, I just will let future facts talk for me.
but this is ridiculos:
You are now calling for inflation only to reduce the amount of debt you took upon yourself. You have spent other people's money and now you refuse to give it back.
never in history a country paid is debts in other ways (except for wars..)
but this is ridiculos:
You are now calling for inflation only to reduce the amount of debt you took upon yourself. You have spent other people's money and now you refuse to give it back.
never in history a country paid is debts in other ways (except for wars..)
never in history a country paid is debts in other ways (except for wars..)
that is not totally correct. Most of the time in history it was with inflation.
read for example -> US economy from end of civil war to end of the 20's
that is not totally correct. Most of the time in history it was with inflation.
read for example -> US economy from end of civil war to end of the 20's
I'll read (just post me something to start, please!)
In this example it happened because you can't have inflaction even stamping money in a depressionary scenario?
In this example it happened because you can't have inflaction even stamping money in a depressionary scenario?
I don't have a link I have read about it some years ago in a book.
never in history a country paid is debts in other ways (except for wars..)
Discussion with you is impossible. You have simplified black&white view on matter and you avoid answering key points because when you try, it usually only shows your ignorance like with this current account balance graph you posted. I explained but you are not able to understand what it really shows: increased volumes of import/export with relatively stable coverage of import by export. Your graph mostly showed that those economies grew in that period. That's it.
And of course inflation is good and necessary but it needs to be stable at 2-4% and anyway, it is always incorporated within the interest rates. Or do you think that you can have a 5% interest with a 10% inflation? Would you ever loan money under such conditions? We have a saying in Croatia: "It's easy to beat the thorn bush with somebody else's penis."
Discussion with you is impossible. You have simplified black&white view on matter and you avoid answering key points because when you try, it usually only shows your ignorance like with this current account balance graph you posted. I explained but you are not able to understand what it really shows: increased volumes of import/export with relatively stable coverage of import by export. Your graph mostly showed that those economies grew in that period. That's it.
And of course inflation is good and necessary but it needs to be stable at 2-4% and anyway, it is always incorporated within the interest rates. Or do you think that you can have a 5% interest with a 10% inflation? Would you ever loan money under such conditions? We have a saying in Croatia: "It's easy to beat the thorn bush with somebody else's penis."
Discussion with you is impossible. You have simplified black&white view on matter and you avoid answering key points because when you try, it usually only shows your ignorance like with this current account balance graph you posted. I explained but you are not able to understand what it really shows: increased volumes of import/export with relatively stable coverage of import by export. Your graph mostly showed that those economies grew in that period. That's it.
Don't talk of me, please.
For the rest, just lol.
And of course inflation is good and necessary
WRONG: inflation is bad, but sometimes you need it to avoid a worst thing. Failure.
but it needs to be stable at 2-4% and anyway, it is always incorporated within the interest rates.WRONG: when you need inflaction you'll need it the amount you need ..
You think we are in a normal situation, we are no more, is useless to discuss with someone that doesn't even know we're payng 6.75% on our bond.. spain pays right now around 7%..
Or do you think that you can have a 5% interest with a 10% inflation?
we had for sure 2 times this thing after WWII.. only in Italy.
Would you ever loan money under such conditions?
LOL, you don't get it. What happen if I have a 20% inflaction? My debts are 20% less.. (to do it simple) my exportation increase, my account blance grows, I need nomore the same amount of lended money.
We have a saying in Croatia: "It's easy to beat the thorn bush with somebody else's penis."
yeah. It's right!
Just keep believing what you read in newspaper, right now Greece defaults and euro exit is nomore avoidable. 6 months ago I read eveything on this forum, now facts talks. We spent a lot of billions to save something, destroyed their society, and still got nothing (nor we, banks had something .. )
Don't talk of me, please.
For the rest, just lol.
And of course inflation is good and necessary
WRONG: inflation is bad, but sometimes you need it to avoid a worst thing. Failure.
but it needs to be stable at 2-4% and anyway, it is always incorporated within the interest rates.WRONG: when you need inflaction you'll need it the amount you need ..
You think we are in a normal situation, we are no more, is useless to discuss with someone that doesn't even know we're payng 6.75% on our bond.. spain pays right now around 7%..
Or do you think that you can have a 5% interest with a 10% inflation?
we had for sure 2 times this thing after WWII.. only in Italy.
Would you ever loan money under such conditions?
LOL, you don't get it. What happen if I have a 20% inflaction? My debts are 20% less.. (to do it simple) my exportation increase, my account blance grows, I need nomore the same amount of lended money.
We have a saying in Croatia: "It's easy to beat the thorn bush with somebody else's penis."
yeah. It's right!
Just keep believing what you read in newspaper, right now Greece defaults and euro exit is nomore avoidable. 6 months ago I read eveything on this forum, now facts talks. We spent a lot of billions to save something, destroyed their society, and still got nothing (nor we, banks had something .. )