Subject: Stocks, Currencies, Commodities

Are you basing it on Analyses/Forecasts (which are usually ~12 months as far as I know) or how do you see the broker moves?

You can see them on the chart, if you learn to think as a broker you can see their movement on the chart, I usualy search for masives S/R areas where brokers keep an eye on stop loss orders, you need years of TA to learn to read a chart and basing on the clasical TA.
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I should read a book about that i think.
Are you working with volume changes and fibonacci numerical lines stuff as well?

For a 3+ months period and stocks an analysis of certain stocks is the best in my opinion.

Yes, the current market stills respect fibonacci retracements, you should look on Elliott Wave too, it gives a strong understanding where the market is going and your trust in yourself becomes stronger.
Beating the "Dealer" is more an understanding the market psychology, stop loss is a strong tool for you, to control your money management, but you can become a target of the "dealer" in some situations so:

Avoid placing stops in these situations:
- close to/at round numbers;
- before/after news releases;
- times of thin liquidity.
I like that your job makes you understand the best of the AF, but for longer terms because i don't understand the best of AF, isn't my strong point, i still use the TA.
For example I'm waiting for the breakout of an right angled and descending broadening formation(daily chart) on romanian stock, a move that can reach the price target in 5-6 years, and E. Wave helps me to see in what direction the breakout will be.
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I'm looking at CAC 40 , from my opinion it will bounce down at 3500 as first price target but it could go lower even 45 pips more.

I am pretty much expecting all of Europes main indices to go down the next few weeks.

And you are right, the CAC is probably first.

to sell oil was a good idea this monday, I think it will stay a good idea.

yep, until 3 o'clock the RSI has bearished, it's interesting that RSI has made a bullish breackout on Gold, so, at the same hour when i saw the Oil chart, it was a good buy signal on Gold.
I wanted to test the market then, but i had been having some things to do.
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The market is very volatile lately.
Bank of Japan pumping even more money in the market...