Subject: [NT] World Cup Qualifying

Group G

1. Eesti
2. New Zealand
3. Portugal
4. Moldova
5. Panamá
6. Misr

First up,

Estonia

Sokker Estonia has a little under 700 users. It’s been around for 12 seasons (two less then New Zealand), though it’s National team is the same age. It’s most storied club team is Max United, which has captured 7 Meistriliiga titles and 3 cups.

Estonia has been a top 10 Sokker NT for as long as I can remember. A few seasons back it had the reputation of having the best defense outside of Poland. I’m not sure that’s true anymore - their defense is still really, really good. But I think most of the players on teams 2 - 10 are pretty homogenous now, which makes it hard to distinguish things like this.

The current Estonia roster is both highly skilled and deep. That a guy like Inno Alonen can only manage 12 caps by the age of 25 is testament to that. They have some old war horses - like defender Mart Saviauk (87 caps) and middie Toomas Sai (80 caps, 28 assists), both of whom are still contributing. From what I can tell, Tarmo Naarits leads the team in goals with 41, tho Kari Keres has an impressive 36 goals in 17 matches and is more likely to feature. I expect Tauri Sarapik to start in goal.

Their roster isn’t without it’s problems. Joel Tomson and Enn Kass are both suspended after picking up yellow cards in their friendly last week. Johan Vohlbrück, who has an impressive 18 assists in 19 matches, is in tragic form which may rule him out. Tho these are awesome players, I don’t expect it to hurt Estonia much at all. They have more then enough depth to handle it (New Zealand’s one injury to Kelly is far more damaging).

This Match ...

First match is a bit of a crap shot. With new managers at the helm of each team, it’s hard to know what to expect.

I’ve been hampered a little by some slow player updates. Not a big deal - New Zealand doesn’t have a lot of depth. It likely wouldn’t have changed the 16 players. But it might have affected who plays where some. I do have a familiarity with the squad, so I’m certainly not groping blindly.

I pointed out some of Estonia’s roster issues above. New Zealand has a big one in the absence of Kelly (injury). There are also some form problems - Edwards has stopped slipping and is now careening towards the bottom end of the spectrum. None of the top 4 strikers is in particularly impressive shape. Taylor also has that slight knock. I’m hoping he will be completely healed by match time, but if not he’s still going to play. It will be a very slight knock by then, and will have minimal impact on his play.

Underway against Estonia. Thanks to Jort who gave some suggestions about the match, and Barhilo who provided some feedback..

Going with a 631. A very defensive approach. The plan is to be very strong at the back, and hope for something good to happen offensively. I had wanted to play more aggressively with a 532, but player form led me to the 631. Striker form is not good - offensive middie form is (631 uses 2 of these instead of 1 in the 532).

If Estonia sits back and plays defensively, then the 631 will look very stale. Estonia’s manager doesn’t mind 1 striker formations, but I really do expect 2 strikers (he’s got to anticipate a defensive approach from New Zealand) and at least 1 winger. New Zealand line is somewhat aggressive - hopefully winning a little more possession.

It is hard to know what to expect in the first match. Estonia’s manager also tends to play his defense very deep. I’d be a little surprised if he plays that deep given the skill of the defenders at his disposal, but like I said - not a lot to go on. I have played the New Zealand striker accordingly. May lead to some offsides.

Throws are mostly line throws, tho I expect some of them to go back to the defender (hopefully the striker can pull back and stay onside). New Zealand will likely need goals from throws or freekicks or something of the like - the Estonia defense will be tough for 1 striker to break down.

Apologies everyone. That's a very poor result. :( Got a clear impression from the first play of what kind of match is was going to be.

Double checked to make sure I released the correct Kaz Taylor. :) He did not play well. Against high powered competition one needs a strong performance from the goalkeeper or you are sunk. Didn't get it today.

The defense, as a group, played poorly. Made a lot of technical errors (Edwards especially). Had trouble tackling - lots of fouls (the Gilbert cards of course). The hope with the side-by-side defenders is that a half tackle will be enough (other guy will recover the ball), but the bounces and fouls conspired against that. The flank defenders got caught upfield a number of times (running with the ball when they probably should have passed), which caused additional problems at the back.

I've used that formation several times before in badly "out-gunned" situations. I don't think it's ever conceded more then 3 goals. It wasn't ideal given the lone striker of Estonia - the 532 would have been a better call - would have still blanketed the striker with a little more midfield pressure and presence. Would have been less defender to defender passing. My fault. :) Still, disappointing to concede so many.

Was hoping to generate a little more offense. Hird ran his tail off, and was very close to getting loose a couple of times. Nice to see Root get on the scoreboard - tho the goal was perhaps a little soft. I knew there wouldn't be many shots - but 1 is not enough. :(

Thought Root, Hird and Watts played pretty well. Atkinson too in his stint. Sansom not bad. The rest ... not so good.

Apologies once again. I will try to do better. :)

I was a bit surprised to see 6 defenders against us when the match started. But yeah, it's quite clear that NZ really needs every player and one injury can be fatal for the whole team.

I still think you fought pretty well and your tactics were quite good. But yeah, our players basically did the game for us. I tried to keep our goal safe and build the game up from defendse but you still managed to score a goal against us :) That deserves to be mentioned.

But yeah, good game. Good luck to you for the rest of the preliminaries :)

What a pitty.. the tactic wasn't bad at all unfourtunatly it didn't work out. Estonia seemed to score goals verry easily.. :( that's just bad luck. Doesn't have NZ a nice winger? Maybe 541 with a winger would have been an option? Than you also got our pressure from the midfield and maybe a bit more passes to the striker (from one of the sides).

Better luck next time! Esti will be group winner I think NZ will have to win from Portugal to qualify. A hard job but it's possible. Good luck :)
(edited)

Thanks for the match. :) It was a very solid tactic and line-up from Estonia. The win was well deserved.

Tho I saw 1 true striker as a strong possibility from Estonia (based on what you do with your club - also I thought some of Estonia's strikers form was a little off too), I didn't really think that would be the formation. What I used works better against two strikers. If I'd been confident you'd only use 1 I would have happily brought another defender into midfield (or perhaps another striker). Might have taken some pressure off the back.

I don't really think it would have mattered today. :) We either need Estonia to screw up (didn't happen) or we need the bounces to go our way (didn't happen). For eg., if one's luck is holding, those two Gilbert plays are easy chips back to the keeper. When things aren't going your way they are converted penalties against. :P

I hope you play Portugal just as tough. :D The danger of having such a good #3 team is two-fold for New Zealand. Not only do they match up well against us, they have just as a good a chance of knocking off #1.

So best of luck until we meet again. :)

It certainly could have gone better. :) Tho Estonia was clearly the better side, I felt the -5 for New Zealand is a little harsh - it will take a bit of work to overcome it.

Part of my reservation about using a winger in this match was that most all of the selected players were decidedly defensive - so they don't have the greatest offensive skills. The pass to a winger is a difficult one which requires a fairly deft touch - otherwise there are a lot of turnovers. It was going to be hard enough maintaining possession in this match - I didn't think the team could afford any additional turnovers. With the two offensive mids in this formation it was possible to get some width without drawing all kinds of passes to the sidelines. Root (IMO) did surprisingly well getting down the line a few times.

Ah i've missed the feeling of having red cards =p the 5 margin is definitely not worth it and especially the first goal was unlucky, great strike by them though. Weren't exactly expecting to win but still, looking forward to the next game!

Heehee. Didn't get many good breaks (Root goal and ... maybe just 1). The tactic, tho I thought it was well executed, wasn't the proper decision. It was too defensive (especially considering Estonia's approach).

Normally when one plays "too defensive" it means the offense struggles. This is my own special variety of playing too defensive where not only the offense sucks, but you also concede buckets of goals. :D

It's a lousy start, but I suspect lots of twists and turns this season. Portugal plays Estonia next week in a big match. One of Portugal's better middies will be suspended. Depth is less of an issue for them, but suspensions certainly don't help.

Things are a little less interesting now until week 7 ... when it suddenly gets very interesting. May perhaps allow the roster to get into more optimal condition. At the moment there are a number of key injuries and some pretty lackluster form.

Panama

Is a relatively young Sokker nation, 9 seasons behind New Zealand. They currently sit ~ 90 managers, which is pretty good (more then Canada, almost 4X as many as New Zealand).

Their domestic leagues are fairly young - so not a great number of "storied" clubs. C.At. Temperley is on it's way though. Has won the top league twice, and is the only non-bot to do so.

The Panamanian National team is ... weak. Very weak really. Defenders
Rafael Wong and Jeffry Villasanta appear to be some of the most useful players - both have 38 caps (which I think leads the team). Eduardo Sosa may be the most dangerous offensive midfielder, with a team leading 5 assists in 25 matches. Strikers Miguel Angel Bonilla and Luciano Portillo both have 6 goals to their name and look to be the top threats at that position. I also mention Irving Cerrud - who has 5 goals and 25 caps - mostly because his skills are visible (gives a sense of the team's overall talent level), tho I think he is a step or two behind the other strikers mentioned. They have not developed an NT caliber keeper.

A good week to face a lesser opponent. Hird, Kelly and Edwards are all injured. Hird was suspended anyway (along with Gilbert Jr.). New Zealand will be fielding the best available line-up, as goal differential may be important later down the line.

Bit weird tomorrow, in that New Zealand, who has the earliest NT start time, plays Panama, who has pretty much the latest. It'll be Sunday before there's a result.

A key match you can check up on tomorrow is Portugal - Estonia which runs at 13:00 SK time. They met in a week 1 friendly, where Estonia put the boots to Portugal in an 8-0 drubbing. But one never knows what a new day will bring. New Zealand supporters will be hoping Estonia takes care of business. :)

Spoiler - don't read if you plan to watch Portugal - Estonia.

This match made me feel a little better about last week's result. It was even more lopsided then New Zealand - Estonia, tho the margin was the same due to some decent keeping at the Portugal end.

Portugal played the winger, and conceded ... 30? throw-ins on the winger side. They were fortunate the throw-ins were well covered. They generated no offense from from the wing, who only got past his defender a couple of times. I think New Zealand was right not playing the winger last week. Only a couple Estonia goals were off mistakes - most were nice passes (essentially all the Estonia goals last week were off of mistakes). Estonia went with two true strikers, which I thought was a good call. The biggest problem with a single striker is if he is sent off - Sokker's substitution orders aren't robust enough to deal properly with that scenario.

So, though New Zealand played absolutely dreadful last week, there's been no immediate harm done. Portugal and New Zealand are even with respect to how they've done against the 800 lb gorilla.

So who are you tipping for the NZ - Portugal battle? =]

The butler.