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Subject: [NT] World Cup Qualifying
Very nicely done Seca, it was quite pleasant to see the first 20 minutes totally dominated by the kiwis! Taylor had a damn fine match and so did the defenders. You nullified their throw ins spectacularly too, especially the one near the box which kept happening and they kept losing... until the predictable red card came anyway ;]
It hasn't been a great week for the roster.
Edwards, D Chadwick and Hawkey are all out injured. Chadwick and Hawkey are depth up front, but are both in great form. Edwards would be a top 4 defender if his form were better. None are crucial loses.
Striker form has eroded further. Amoungst the big 4 the best form is now average. Ouch. I was excited about the prospects of having Bodger back, but his form dropped 3 levels with the update and now sits at unsatisfactory.
The team's clear advantage heading into the last match - goalkeeping - has been diminished some, as Taylor's form has come off.
Portugal still has form problems in the defense. But other aspects of the team have maintained or strengthened. Keeper form is up, Kramer is fully healed, Contreiras should be available (tho is in mid-range form), Lombardo is in top form. I saw this as a tough match last time. It's a tougher match this go round.
Still, New Zealand has the high ground. A draw would almost certainly ensure qualification. The immediate inclination is to play defensively, but Portugal's biggest weakness ATM appears to be their defense. If anyone has suggestions, I would appreciate input (via SK mail) about the match.
Edwards, D Chadwick and Hawkey are all out injured. Chadwick and Hawkey are depth up front, but are both in great form. Edwards would be a top 4 defender if his form were better. None are crucial loses.
Striker form has eroded further. Amoungst the big 4 the best form is now average. Ouch. I was excited about the prospects of having Bodger back, but his form dropped 3 levels with the update and now sits at unsatisfactory.
The team's clear advantage heading into the last match - goalkeeping - has been diminished some, as Taylor's form has come off.
Portugal still has form problems in the defense. But other aspects of the team have maintained or strengthened. Keeper form is up, Kramer is fully healed, Contreiras should be available (tho is in mid-range form), Lombardo is in top form. I saw this as a tough match last time. It's a tougher match this go round.
Still, New Zealand has the high ground. A draw would almost certainly ensure qualification. The immediate inclination is to play defensively, but Portugal's biggest weakness ATM appears to be their defense. If anyone has suggestions, I would appreciate input (via SK mail) about the match.
Underway in the 2nd Portugal leg.
I wanted play 5 at the back last time the teams met, but I’ve learned my first inclination is often a little too defensive. So a more offensive 442 was used, and it worked out fairly well.
However I didn’t like how the flanks were exposed (especially Williams) - fortunately the throw-in coverage was good. But I think it’s tempting fate to give space on the wings again - so this time it is a 532 from New Zealand. Pretty conventional, aside from some tandem positioning for the strikers.
I’m expecting something similar from Portugal. Their tactics really haven’t shown much variation - width in the midfield, and a deep defensive line. They did try a narrower tactic this past week against England, but it wasn’t very effective - I’d be surprised if they did that again (especially since Portugal has some nice wide players - trained and owned by the current NT manager). A more likely change (IMO) would be to move the defense out a bit.
Once again it should be a very even match. Portugal puts up better ratings and has some pretty dynamic players. They will get chances - Taylor will have to play well. It would be nice if we could finish with 11 players. :P
A draw would likely do for qualifying, but I’m hopeful for another win which could mean some decent seeding come WC time.
LINE-UP
Taylor
Kelly, Williams, Kilkenny, Harris, Watts
Atkinson, DeBruin, Root
Morcombe, Hird
BENCH
Alves
M Gilbert
Sansom (60 - Root - conditional)
Petherick
B Gilbert (65 - Morcombe)
Hird takes penalties, Atkinson freekicks. DeBruin covers the back 5 in case of red card.
I wanted play 5 at the back last time the teams met, but I’ve learned my first inclination is often a little too defensive. So a more offensive 442 was used, and it worked out fairly well.
However I didn’t like how the flanks were exposed (especially Williams) - fortunately the throw-in coverage was good. But I think it’s tempting fate to give space on the wings again - so this time it is a 532 from New Zealand. Pretty conventional, aside from some tandem positioning for the strikers.
I’m expecting something similar from Portugal. Their tactics really haven’t shown much variation - width in the midfield, and a deep defensive line. They did try a narrower tactic this past week against England, but it wasn’t very effective - I’d be surprised if they did that again (especially since Portugal has some nice wide players - trained and owned by the current NT manager). A more likely change (IMO) would be to move the defense out a bit.
Once again it should be a very even match. Portugal puts up better ratings and has some pretty dynamic players. They will get chances - Taylor will have to play well. It would be nice if we could finish with 11 players. :P
A draw would likely do for qualifying, but I’m hopeful for another win which could mean some decent seeding come WC time.
LINE-UP
Taylor
Kelly, Williams, Kilkenny, Harris, Watts
Atkinson, DeBruin, Root
Morcombe, Hird
BENCH
Alves
M Gilbert
Sansom (60 - Root - conditional)
Petherick
B Gilbert (65 - Morcombe)
Hird takes penalties, Atkinson freekicks. DeBruin covers the back 5 in case of red card.
Wow. I'm really surprised that worked. When the teams took the field, I figured the score-line would come out the other way round.
The press from them was a good idea - and not unforeseen. But that (IMO) was a poorly executed one. First rule of the press is to keep your own strikers on-side, otherwise the opponent just bombs balls at your defense (you want the balls along the ground at the defense). Portugal was offside as much or more then New Zealand.
New Zealand team passing was horrible. Bad decisions and bad execution. I'm still a little stunned we didn't dismantle that press - I thought players had the positioning to do so. Perhaps it's a testament to the poor form of the strikers - normally New Zealand's strikers are one of the last crews you would attempt that against.
Anyway, it worked like a charm. Portugal owned the match, and could well have won by more. I think they go ahead on GD. Makes the rest of qualifying interesting - I believe there is a reasonable chance both teams can qualify. For sure the one that puts more in the back of the net from here on is going through.
The press from them was a good idea - and not unforeseen. But that (IMO) was a poorly executed one. First rule of the press is to keep your own strikers on-side, otherwise the opponent just bombs balls at your defense (you want the balls along the ground at the defense). Portugal was offside as much or more then New Zealand.
New Zealand team passing was horrible. Bad decisions and bad execution. I'm still a little stunned we didn't dismantle that press - I thought players had the positioning to do so. Perhaps it's a testament to the poor form of the strikers - normally New Zealand's strikers are one of the last crews you would attempt that against.
Anyway, it worked like a charm. Portugal owned the match, and could well have won by more. I think they go ahead on GD. Makes the rest of qualifying interesting - I believe there is a reasonable chance both teams can qualify. For sure the one that puts more in the back of the net from here on is going through.
Actually puts the teams even in GD - New Zealand still ahead passed on more goals scored.
Edit: and this match means we're already looking for help elsewhere. :) USA over Sweden and Hungary over Colombia would be good results for New Zealand later today.
(edited)
Edit: and this match means we're already looking for help elsewhere. :) USA over Sweden and Hungary over Colombia would be good results for New Zealand later today.
(edited)
not to mention Brazil over us, although I'm going to try for that not to happen but it's quite likely. Wasn't a good result for us either now, means we've got to pick up more points against either Brazil or Croatia to jump back ahead of some of the other teams. I was also quite surprised they were able to get that excessive offside trap to work. Most times things like that backfire heavily.
It surprised me that they were able to pull it off with 4 in the line. It's got no width. Any kind of service to Atkinson or Root and they are gone. Most presses have 5 in the line ... some even 6.
With the form of their defense, I thought they were actually the weak spot. The press put tonnes of pressure on them ... and they played awesome. Very few bobbles and missed tackles. And most impressively, no "runs" - that's the big deterrent to using a press - defenders tend to run with the ball when they get close to midfield. But Portugal's defenders did an excellent job unloading the ball. I think they were only stripped once or twice all match.
The Hungary - Colombia match was a decent (not optimal, but decent) result for all potential 3rd place teams.
Good luck with your match. The last one was awesome. The Byers goal to tie it was one of the nicest I've seen. :)
With the form of their defense, I thought they were actually the weak spot. The press put tonnes of pressure on them ... and they played awesome. Very few bobbles and missed tackles. And most impressively, no "runs" - that's the big deterrent to using a press - defenders tend to run with the ball when they get close to midfield. But Portugal's defenders did an excellent job unloading the ball. I think they were only stripped once or twice all match.
The Hungary - Colombia match was a decent (not optimal, but decent) result for all potential 3rd place teams.
Good luck with your match. The last one was awesome. The Byers goal to tie it was one of the nicest I've seen. :)
Action isn't quite over today, but things ... for the most part ... have gone in the favour of our group's 3rd place team.
6 3rd place teams are on 12 points:
Canada, Portugal-New Zealand, Austria, Venezuela, Wales*, Bulgaria*
(Wales & Bulgaria yet to play, but both have easy matches)
The first four teams have 1 difficult match left (a likely loss), while the final two have 2 difficult matches remaining. So the first 4 listed have (IMO) the inside track at the wildcard spots.
There are a few teams on 11 points that are very much alive (would need a draw in their remaining "tough" match to even up points) - Australia notable and most likely to rise from these teams.
6 3rd place teams are on 12 points:
Canada, Portugal-New Zealand, Austria, Venezuela, Wales*, Bulgaria*
(Wales & Bulgaria yet to play, but both have easy matches)
The first four teams have 1 difficult match left (a likely loss), while the final two have 2 difficult matches remaining. So the first 4 listed have (IMO) the inside track at the wildcard spots.
There are a few teams on 11 points that are very much alive (would need a draw in their remaining "tough" match to even up points) - Australia notable and most likely to rise from these teams.
I was quite surprised they managed to pull through with that too, disappointing the middies kept hocking it up into space where the far superior pace of the portugese defenders managed to get there first. Saw a bit of walking about by some of the kiwi defenders too. As they say though, thats how the cookie crumbles. Lady luck just wasn't as good in Oceania this weekend.
At least i won a few $$ from South Africa winning against England in the 3rd test match =D
At least i won a few $$ from South Africa winning against England in the 3rd test match =D
didnt know England won that match. I go look soon.
We were out paced in the NT match. Why do we look so slow sometimes?
There were a few one on one chases to the ball and we lost every one :(
The new match engine is awsome just like the HAKA...
We were out paced in the NT match. Why do we look so slow sometimes?
There were a few one on one chases to the ball and we lost every one :(
The new match engine is awsome just like the HAKA...
It was pointed out to me after the match that Portugal did not use their normal defense. They went with a pace/form group over their normal crew. It clearly paid off for them - the front 4 New Zealand players all looked quite sluggish by comparison (form likely a big part of this). That's one of the luxuries of being a big nation.
I had prepared 3 tactics for this match, and either of the other two would have worked better. They both had a 5-2 at the back instead of a 5-1. Would have helped a little, but I don't think enough to change the outcome.
Player selection was a bigger issue. I made two last minute changes that were not beneficial. I switched Watts and Williams. I wanted Watts' better midfield skills at the fullback position, but decided I needed Watts' better technique inside to prevent fumbles and tackles by the strikers (both happened to Watts anyway). A good part of the passing trouble (IMO) was Williams (DeBruin the other main culprit). Watts would likely would have made better decisions and definitely would have executed his passes better.
The other switch was changing Kelly and (at the time) Watts' orders. I initially had them in as MIDs. Both have enough tech to fend off a tackle from behind, and I find the MID order results in better decisions from the fullbacks. I chickened out because an injury would have resulted in Sansom going in at fullback, which would have been a disaster. Had I left them as MIDs I think there would have been more and higher quality passes to Atkinson and Root, who were both well positioned to expose the narrow press. That might have had a significant influence on events.
The other real key personnel error was Morcombe vs. Gilbert. Gilbert is a much better press breaker (though in this much he had a tendency to run horizontally until tackled ???). He would have been a better selection. Bodger is also a great press breaker, and would have been more effective then Morcombe (Morcombe was selected due to his better form).
I don't want it to sound like I'm beating myself up over the match. I'm not. As a manager you can't really field an anti-press tactic (unless your opponent does it all the time). The press gives the non-pressing offensive players the advantage. It's up to them to execute, and (Morcombe and Hird especially) they just didn't do it on this occasion. Full credit to Portugal. They took a huge risk with their tactic, and it worked out.
I had prepared 3 tactics for this match, and either of the other two would have worked better. They both had a 5-2 at the back instead of a 5-1. Would have helped a little, but I don't think enough to change the outcome.
Player selection was a bigger issue. I made two last minute changes that were not beneficial. I switched Watts and Williams. I wanted Watts' better midfield skills at the fullback position, but decided I needed Watts' better technique inside to prevent fumbles and tackles by the strikers (both happened to Watts anyway). A good part of the passing trouble (IMO) was Williams (DeBruin the other main culprit). Watts would likely would have made better decisions and definitely would have executed his passes better.
The other switch was changing Kelly and (at the time) Watts' orders. I initially had them in as MIDs. Both have enough tech to fend off a tackle from behind, and I find the MID order results in better decisions from the fullbacks. I chickened out because an injury would have resulted in Sansom going in at fullback, which would have been a disaster. Had I left them as MIDs I think there would have been more and higher quality passes to Atkinson and Root, who were both well positioned to expose the narrow press. That might have had a significant influence on events.
The other real key personnel error was Morcombe vs. Gilbert. Gilbert is a much better press breaker (though in this much he had a tendency to run horizontally until tackled ???). He would have been a better selection. Bodger is also a great press breaker, and would have been more effective then Morcombe (Morcombe was selected due to his better form).
I don't want it to sound like I'm beating myself up over the match. I'm not. As a manager you can't really field an anti-press tactic (unless your opponent does it all the time). The press gives the non-pressing offensive players the advantage. It's up to them to execute, and (Morcombe and Hird especially) they just didn't do it on this occasion. Full credit to Portugal. They took a huge risk with their tactic, and it worked out.
Always good to measure the competition. Estonian midfielder Kalmar Oltsvel is currently on the TL. A little surprised he's only managed 17 caps with those stats - shows the kind of depth Estonia has.
Hmm what a pitty :(.. didn't watched the match yet.. I'm a little bit surprised by this result! Goal difference will be verry important from now on.
I obviously wanted to win the match, but I'm happy to have split the games with Portugal. Both teams are WC caliber, and the split gives both a reasonable shot at qualifying.
All set for this weekend's match against Egypt. A pretty key match IMO. Egypt is the weakest team in the group - and the best chance to hang a +15 or 20 on someone. Not likely to happen without some referee intervention tho (Egypt isn't a Tunisia or Cameroun, and their manager is active and has good defensive schemes). But you never know. :)
I'm surprised Egypt's matches are so late in the day. Don't think I will be around for the match (Scottish festival this weekend. I'm not Scottish, but my wife is. I go for the scotch. :D).
There are some important matches this weekend with respect to the 3rd place wildcard spots. Keep an eye on:
Wales - England
Venezuela - France
Bulgaria - Lithuania
A point by any of the home underdogs would be very big, and not good news for other 3rd place hopefuls.
Also,
South Africa - Poland
South Africa needs a win to get back into it, and Poland has been a little restless lately and may well play a weak line-up. Even with a win, South Africa would still need a result against Mexico to be a serious contender.
All set for this weekend's match against Egypt. A pretty key match IMO. Egypt is the weakest team in the group - and the best chance to hang a +15 or 20 on someone. Not likely to happen without some referee intervention tho (Egypt isn't a Tunisia or Cameroun, and their manager is active and has good defensive schemes). But you never know. :)
I'm surprised Egypt's matches are so late in the day. Don't think I will be around for the match (Scottish festival this weekend. I'm not Scottish, but my wife is. I go for the scotch. :D).
There are some important matches this weekend with respect to the 3rd place wildcard spots. Keep an eye on:
Wales - England
Venezuela - France
Bulgaria - Lithuania
A point by any of the home underdogs would be very big, and not good news for other 3rd place hopefuls.
Also,
South Africa - Poland
South Africa needs a win to get back into it, and Poland has been a little restless lately and may well play a weak line-up. Even with a win, South Africa would still need a result against Mexico to be a serious contender.