Subject: [NT] World Cup Qualifying

I obviously wanted to win the match, but I'm happy to have split the games with Portugal. Both teams are WC caliber, and the split gives both a reasonable shot at qualifying.

All set for this weekend's match against Egypt. A pretty key match IMO. Egypt is the weakest team in the group - and the best chance to hang a +15 or 20 on someone. Not likely to happen without some referee intervention tho (Egypt isn't a Tunisia or Cameroun, and their manager is active and has good defensive schemes). But you never know. :)

I'm surprised Egypt's matches are so late in the day. Don't think I will be around for the match (Scottish festival this weekend. I'm not Scottish, but my wife is. I go for the scotch. :D).

There are some important matches this weekend with respect to the 3rd place wildcard spots. Keep an eye on:

Wales - England
Venezuela - France
Bulgaria - Lithuania

A point by any of the home underdogs would be very big, and not good news for other 3rd place hopefuls.

Also,

South Africa - Poland
South Africa needs a win to get back into it, and Poland has been a little restless lately and may well play a weak line-up. Even with a win, South Africa would still need a result against Mexico to be a serious contender.

Poland will be fielding their U20's

That's what I read too. :) Gives South Africa a reasonable shot I think.

both wrong if what I've been going through holds. I believe it was U21 against SA and U22 against Bosnia, but we'll see if they keep to that or not ;).

So South Africa win as a result of Poland playing U20's. I tell you what if this costs a side flirting for the top 4 3rd placed spots, I won't be happy regardless of whether we're affected or another NT.

It shouldn't. :) South Africa still needs points from Mexico (probably a win), and I doubt they will be as charitable.

Spoiler! Don't read on if you plan to watch some matches.

Aside from the South Africa match, all the others have gone as expected with road wins (Venezuela - France still to play). Good news for our group's eventual 3rd place finisher.

Speaking of our group, Portugal got a +9 from Panama on 26 shots. Respectable, but not exceptional.

It has already though. Not for Australia though, but for Cymru,Slovenija, puts Bulgaria in a very harsh position, Venezuela if they lose to France today join Cymru and Slovenija. (That is assuming South Africa don't blow points against Bosnia which is probable). Not that Cymru and Slovenija were going to qualify anyway (so long as Australia and everyone already in the top 3 won the games they are expected to) but if we suddenly drew with Uruguay, South Africa could sneak through ahead of them.

Fortunately for us, fate is still in our hands as a result of already picking up valuable draws against Croatia and Brazil.

Anyway good luck with nailing goals past Egypt :)

Giant step towards 3rd place. :( 5 goals in the first 15 minutes, 4 goals in the next 75. On pace for 20 ... didn't make 10. Hard to win a GD race when you convert at 20%.

Last meeting I was able to use some higher form options up front - Chadwick and Hawkey. Both were injured this time, so there wasn't much choice but to use the low form options. Early on it looked it like Hird would push through it, but he fell off as the match proceeded. I kinda hoped Gilbert might get one of their defenders into card trouble, but it didn't pan out. His 1 for 12 shooting was not helpful. I was very disappointed in Morcombe who really performed below my expectations. Bodger didn't bring much spark - he didn't want to shoot, and had an incredibly difficult time handling passes.

Midfield played well, though I suppose they bear some responsibility for all the fumbled passes in the second half. Hoped Petherick-Dawkins would provide a little more offense from the back. Defense as a group also played fine.

Despite the poor result, there was one passing play in the 42nd minute that is one of the nicest ones I've seen. I think it started with Petherick and flowed all over the pitch. There eventually was a shot, but it was saved. Still, a lovely play.

New Zealand will still be in second place tomorrow, but the writing is on the wall now. :/

Yeah they must've gotten far too confident about the first goals andf laxing off, to get les than 1/4 =/

Been a little distracted this week - meant to post this earlier. Things are all set for the re-match against Moldova.

A couple of the strikers moved the right direction with their form. Atkinson notable for taking some big strides the wrong way last week. His stable mate Sansom is unavailable due to suspension.

Some matches of our interest to the 3rd place finishers. Mexico vs. South Africa is one. Canada is in a must win against Iceland.

Underway. First and foremost this week is getting the win. It’s going to be tough to keep up in GD after last week. Winning out (aside from Estonia) will get the team in, and that’s the primary goal.

Moldova is the most capable of the bottom 3, and are the squad I’m the most wary of. The tactic used in this match (442 with winger) is one I’m very comfortable with, provides reasonably strong defense and fairly flexible offense.

Last time we used a 433. This time sacrificing one striker for a pure winger. Partly due to form (striker form is still dismal) and partly open more avenues of attack. Irvine is the winger in the first half. He should make life difficult for the Moldova left back. Atkinson, who has a little more finesse, shifts into the spot for the second half.

Missing Sansom due to suspension. Both Edwards and Bodger making starts after reduced action due to injury and form.

LINE-UP

Taylor
Edwards, Harris, Kilkenny, Watts
Root, Kelly, Atkinson, Irvine
Bodger, Morcombe

BENCH

Alves
Williams
Tomlinson (46 - Irvine, shift with Atkinson)
Hird (60 - Morcombe)
Petherick

Nice win. A little frustrating at times to see a few good chances go begging and they had our up the sideline throw ins covered. I think that cost us a few more oppertunities. Bodger could well be losing the plot. He does some strange things at times. Hird played well scoring two within 2 minutes of getting on the field. Kelly looked real good.
Why do Roots through balls never get put away? Thats so annoying...for me anyway ;)

Another disappointing result. A +5 was the hope. After the red card and the spark Hird brought from the bench I thought there was a good chance of making it, but came up short.

Morcombe's finishing was once again very poor. Perhaps more frustrating was the amount of times New Zealand strikers failed to shoot in excellent shooting positions. The 13 shots could easily have been 20. Not sure why they didn't want to pull the trigger. Form?

The New Zealand defense played too deep - were too far off the Moldova flank players (who weren't all that dangerous, but wasted a reasonable amount of time criss-crossing the field with passes). Kelly doesn't play that poorly very often.

On the bright side, Taylor had a bit of work to do and played very well.

Hard to say - I thought Root and Bodger would make good use of the space on the left after the red card. The winger meant play was drawn to their stronger side even with the obvious weakness in their defense. I was expecting more through-balls overall - had strikers in seams. Sometimes the winger just overwhelms the focus of the offense.

Seems we have differing views on Kelly's match. :) He was better in the second half, but I thought his tackling was very poor in the first, and was tackled himself more often then I expected.

The race for 2nd is pretty much over. Portugal put 17 up on Egypt today - pretty good conversion rate on 42 shots (New Zealand 9 for 44 last week). They did muster an incredible striking rating, so perhaps it's deserved (I didn't watch the match).

It's not impossible for New Zealand to make up that stagger, but it's very unlikely - especially given the continuing poor form of the striker corps. Getting a point off Estonia would render the GD irrelevant (intra-group), but in all honesty Portugal looks more likely to achieve that given their depth and better team form.

So the main goal at this point is to take care of business against Panama in 2 weeks and ensure the 3rd place qualification. Most likely the 2nd place finisher from our Q-group will be a 3rd ... perhaps 4th seed for the WC, so coming in 3rd (and being a 4th seed) isn't that bad. I don't think there is a lot of difference between 3 and 4 seeds in the WC - big difference between 2 and 3 seeds.

Yeah NZ should be pretty safe to qualify now even if you do lose to Estonia. Few other teams still fighting for that final spot and it's going to be close.