Subject: [NT] World Cup Qualifying

Yeah NZ should be pretty safe to qualify now even if you do lose to Estonia. Few other teams still fighting for that final spot and it's going to be close.

The problem is that New Zealand will likely have the poorest GD of the 21 point finishers. So if one of these teams does miss ...

If the remaining qualifying fixtures play out according to the rankings, the top 4 3rd place teams would be Austria, New Zealand, Iceland (all on 21 points) and Australia (20 points).

The bubble teams are the ones on 16 with 1 tough match left. I think there are four of them.

Sweden vs. Netherlands
Belarus vs. Spain
Peru vs. Belgium
Colombia vs. Italy

None of those underdogs are likely, but any are possible. If Australia beats Croatia and Iceland surpassing New Zealand in GD, then only 1 of those matches would need to be an upset win (draw won't do) for New Zealand to miss.

(This is worst case scenario consideration - it's still possible New Zealand could finish 2nd in the group with a point against Estonia or if the strikers go nuts against Panama).)

I've been going through the possible scenarios too and we're far more vulnerable then NZ is ;). The annoying thing is though we can still finish 2nd in the group, even 1st if results show a royal flush getting turned and Brazil draw with Croatia, we beat Croatia and Uruguay and Brazil draws their next match.

I've had a funny feeling for most of the qualifying matches that 21 points will be the mark. 20 points might go down to goal difference.

You've also got the 15 pointers as well, if they knock up massive goal differences and finish on 21 points. Ireland are capable of beating Argentina, they've done it before. Bosnia could get to 20 points (especially if Poland decide to continue with the U21 idea), so it's still really open. Times like this I wish I had a late starting game next week to alter tactics depending on results of other games but we've got an early one.

Also missing out last time due to 6 goals of all things I realize just how close it can get come that final round.

Still theoretically, any of the current top 4 3rd teams can miss out. Still I'd rather play Panama then have to take on Uruguay knowing that 3 points is the only way to qualify and anything less is basically qualification over.

Might add I'm so relieved Mexico won against South Africa, really didn't want Poland to kill the chances of other NT sides.
(edited)

I don't consider Ireland or BiH threats to New Zealand's qualification. Even if Ireland were to upset Argentina, there's no way they can make up the GD in those two matches (other match is Israel - a decent defensive team).

By the same argument BiH isn't a threat to Australia. Ireland could be if they can get to 21 points.

New Zealand's situation is much better then Australia's. Those matches I listed above have to be underdog wins to trouble New Zealand. Underdog draws would be enough to potentially stress Australia.

But I like Australia's chances. Of all of the "projected losses" I think Australia has the best opportunity to get something done against Croatia. :)

GROUP L

Österreich

Rest:

Vs Romania (Unknow)
Vs Hayastan (Win)

At Round 10 : They can obtain 18 + 3 + (0-3) points, they range: 21-24



GROUP G

New Zealand

Rest:

Vs Panamá (Win)
Vs Eesti (Maybe draw or lose)

At Round 10 : They can obtain 18 + 3 + (0-1) points, they range: 21-22

GROUP I

Australia

Rest:

Vs Hrvatska (Lose - Draw - Win)
Vs Brasil (Lose - Draw - Win)

At Round 10 : They can obtain 17 +(0-3)+ (0-3) points, they range: 17-23

GROUP H

Perú

Rest

Vs Belgie (Lose - Draw or... Win with a wonderfull match >.< and a inspired strikers)
Vs El Salvador (Win)

At Round 10 : We can obtain 16 +(0-3)+ 3 points, our range: 19-22


GROUP E

Belarus

The same of Perú,

At Round 10 : They can obtain 16 +(0-1)+ 3 points, they range: 19-20

GROUP K

Colombia

Is very hard...

Vs Italy (Lose or Draw)
Vs Magyarország (Lose, Draw or Win)

At Round 10 : They can obtain 16 +(0-1)+(0-3) points, they range: 16-20

GROUP A

Sverige

Vs Nederland (Lose)
Vs Rossiya (Draw or Win)

At Round 10 : They can obtain 16 +(0)+(1-3) points, they range: 17-19

GROUP C

Island will win they two matches, so...

At Round 10 : They'll obtain 21 points.

GROUP B

Bosnia

With Polska, they can win :S:S:S:S
With South Africa (Lose, Draw - Win)

At Round 10 : They can obtain 14 +(3)+(0-3) points, they range: 17-20

The rest... i think Venezuela win two matches and obtain 19 points.



Well, in the bad case for all:

Osterleich -> 21 pts
New Zealand -> 21 pts
Island -> 21
Perú -> 19 pts =)
----------------------
Belarus -> 19 pts
Venezuela ->19
Australia -> 17 pts
Bosnia -> 17
Colombia -> 16 pts
Sverige -> 16

In the Medium Case for all:


Osterleich -> 22 pts
New Zealand -> 22 pts
Island -> 21
Australia -> 21 pts

----------------------
Perú -> 20 pts T_T
Belarus -> 20 pts
Venezuela ->19
Bosnia -> 18
Sverige -> 18
Colombia -> 16 pts

In the Best case for all:


Osterleich -> 24 pts
Australia -> 23 pts
New Zealand -> 22 pts
Perú -> 22 pts
----------------------
Island -> 21
Belarus -> 20 pts
Venezuela ->19
Bosnia -> 20
Sverige -> 19
Colombia -> 20 pts

But I Think it will be the table.

Osterleich
New Zealand
Australia
Island
----------------------
Perú
Belarus
Venezuela
Bosnia
Sverige
Colombia

Of course, I will do its utmost to take that fourth place ='(

ARRIBA PERÚ


Sorry by my poor english :P

thing is we don't play Brazil, you might want to recalculate that ;).

@Seca: Yeah I wasn't referring to Ireland and Bosnia as threats to NZ, was more at us. The threats to NZ lie with all those you mentioned, was actually just stating why NZ was less at risk then us. The thing I like though is that we control our own fate in that we win both games, we're in and can't be bundled out.

Have a line-up set for this weekend, though it will likely be tweaked after the training-form update.

Biggest roster point this week is the absence of Sansom (injury). Despite a poor match last week, Irvine is the most likely to fill the hole.

A couple of strikers showing signs of life - both Morcombe and Bodger have moved up in form - hopefully will do so again in the update. Bad news is that Atkinson, who has provided most of New Zealand's offensive creativity this season, is continuing to see his form erode.

Intra-group the big game is Estonia - Portugal. An Estonian win would mean a final week draw (New Zealand vs. Estonia) would give New Zealand 2nd place regardless of goal differential. A Portugal draw this week would put pressure on New Zealand to win in the final week. A Portugal win this week would wrap up 2nd place for them.

I figure New Zealand has to win by 20 this week to have any chance of catching Portugal in goal differential. Not very likely considering the most Panama has surrendered in the competition has been 10. Still, we'll give it a shot.

Inter-group there are some important matches to watch. Wins by any of the following underdogs (all on 16 points) threaten New Zealand's qualification. From New Zealand's perspective, draws by any of these teams are as good as a loss.

Netherlands - Sweden
Spain - Belarus
Belgium - Peru
Italy - Colombia

The other match of interest is Croatia - Australia. As Cometer pointed out, there are a lot of permutations in Group I (final week match of Brasil - Croatia is hard to read). Probably the best result for New Zealand would be a Croatia win (would ensure Australia finishes with a max of 20 points). For those kinda pulling for Australia, a draw would help them without hurting New Zealand. If Australia pulls off the win, New Zealand supporters may really have to root for Brasil the final week.

Underway against Panama.

Had planned to use a 352 this week.. Worked well last time, tho most all the game was played with 10 men. But Panama has been using 5 at the back in recent weeks. I expect them to do so again, and would like strikers running in the gaps between the centerbacks and fullbacks. So a midfielder (Irvine) was sacrificed for a 3rd striker. The downside is possible “dilution”, since the team doesn’t have a full compliment of in-form strikers. Hopefully most of the shots will be taken by the in-form guys.

Line-Up

Alves
Kilkenny, Edwards, Watts
Kelly, Root, Petherick, Atkinson
B Gilbert, Morcombbe, Bodger

Bench

Taylor
Williams
Tomlinson (50 - Petherick)
Hird (60 - Gilbert)
Hawkey (70 - Morcombe)

The expected +10. Team played pretty well and generated some nice chances. Finishing was ... ok. Not spectacular by any means. Had hoped for a little better from Bodger (his empty net miss from 2 yards out wasn't cool), but most of the others performed ~ expectations.

Very nice match from Root. Sansom's absence was obvious to me. The central midfielder(s) did not have a great game. Petherick was in for his grit, but had a little trouble 1 vs. 1 against his opposite. Tomlinson was a little slow delivering the ball sometimes, and seems more comfortable backed off a little more. Had either Richards or Matthews been in better form Sansom wouldn't have been missed as much.

Taylor is the source of any hope next week, so was given a break this week. Alves performed well.

Tactically I was happy with the striker and midfield placement. Middies had an annoying habit of servicing the 1 straggling striker, which led to a few offsides. Throw-ins weren't great much of the time - it's difficult to find space with throws when the opponent backs in. Still, many of the throw-ins were effective because of the horsepower advantage.

Lots of other action to come today. :) This is one of the highlight weeks of qualifying - probably better then the final week this season.

nice game :) I watched the match live! congrats :)

There isn't a whole lot that can go wrong when the skill levels are that disparate. :) Still, through without injury or card ... which is good.

Estonia - Portugal just about to get underway.

I'd hoped Portugal would use their kamikaze 4 man press against Estonia, and they obliged. I had visions of Estonia scoring 10-15 against it. If I used a tactic like that, where essentially every tackle asked of a defender is from a bad position, I'm sure my side would finish with only 5 or 6 players on the pitch. :P I suppose fortune favours the brave, and for a while, it seemed Portugal would get away with foul after foul. But towards the end a couple cards came out, and there was no red-card coverage of the back line (unbelievable given that tactic). In the end, the +5 by Estonia was probably a little generous. Their strikers didn't have a very good match.

Within the group that means a draw next week would give New Zealand second. The -5 to Portugal's goal differential is not enough damage for NZ to make up sufficient ground.

I have to say that you're a sidekick, compared to me :)
Basically every team this season has tried to outplay us with an offside trap - except Portugal. And I thought, that since this game is really important to them, they weren't going to try.

Well, guess what - wrong again.

But yeah, they basically hanged theirselves. Sure, we couldn't attack from the center so well, but thanks to their tactic, Oltsel was able to show what a great knight in a shining armour he really is. He basically made the game for us and our other players were smart enough to let him do it. There were very few hopeless passes to our attackers, who were in offside. Instead, all the passes were directed to Oltsvel, who was just on the line with the Portuguese defenders. And well, then he outplayed them and gave good crosses throughout the game. Pitty that our strikers just didn't want to score. After the first-half I was getting a bit depressed about it but all was well in the end. They finally started to get booked and our strikers started to score.

And congratulations to you too on the nice win against Panam. Though it seems that none of the Group G squads are able to score more than 10 goals to Panama. I sense witchcraft.

So, next week is the big game :) Good luck and see you then.
(edited)

I'm not sure I understand your first statement. :) (Unless you are saying you also have trouble with red cards ... if that's the case I'm not sure I'm anyone's sidekick :P). Congrats on a nice result. We wanted another shot at 2nd place, though it is a rather tall hill to climb.

All the extra-group matches have gone the way we wanted. Sweden, Belarus, Peru and Colombia all lost (Peru and Belarus put up good fights). Australia also lost, but with those four results is still looking quite good for qualification. As far as I can tell, New Zealand has now officially qualified, assuring themselves of at least a berth as a top 3rd place finisher.

Btw - Moldova achieved a +9 against Egypt. :S A little insult to injury that they were able to match New Zealand's output against them. :/

Sidekick as in foreteller.
Cause you said that you hoped to see Portugal playing with the kamikaze tactics.