Subject: Future Star Pulls

It is much a bigger chance but stating his talent to be 3.5 is basically saying it is certain.

That isn't fair as you might be underselling the player. he might pop 3433333 - insisting on assuming the worst case is a bit rude really.

You can assume what you like when you go shopping but telling someone their potentially 3.333 player MUST be called 3.5 is...

There's no reason he couldn't.

That's my point though, he can't go 34333333 though can he?

Even a four week pop next wouldn't prove he is 3.5 talent. it would just narrow the possible range to around 3.4-3.6, so its fair to approx 3.5 but not a fact :P

Now imo you are completely wrong. After 3-4-3-4 pops the chance his talent is sth else than 3.5 is rather small, nil for me.

Actually he could as Pilotfish had a player pop 10 times at 3 weeks and then finally a 4 week pop.

Just to confuse things even further. lol

That's my point though, he can't go 34333333 though can he?

I actually think it`s possible. Might be wrong wrong, but I have seen similar talent graphs, where the first is in 3w, 2nd in 4w and after that there will become a punch of three week pops.

That's different though. He would have then had to pop another 10 times in a row with 3 weeks after that, wouldn't he?

If that's true then i am totally confused :o)

He certainly can, I could prove that too, but its a bit time consuming!

Just assume that he started on sublevel 6.68, if that was the case he would have to be around a 3.125 week popper & would pop 3433333334

OK fair enough :o) like i said i haven't had players that talented so couldn't comment fully. If that is the case then i can see it can certainly get very confusing with all the sub levels and possibilities!

I'm not wrong at all ;-)

You could approximate the talent was 3.5, but you would probably be wrong. How wrong depends on the player, as I said the range is 3.4-3.6, after the next 3-4 pop the range gets even smaller around 3.45-3.55, but its still a range and its possible to break the pattern and get a 3-3 or 4-4 pops.

I'm an actuarial student, I'm paid to consider all the possibilities for future uncertain events then approximate the most likely outcome ;-)

I was just about to say if anybody is going to be "spot on the diddler" on this subject, it's got to be you ;o)

You could approximate the talent was 3.5, but you would probably be wrong. How wrong depends on the player, as I said the range is 3.4-3.6, after the next 3-4 pop the range gets even smaller around 3.45-3.55, but its still a range and its possible to break the pattern and get a 3-3 or 4-4 pops.

Yes you are right...But the chances after 3-4-3-4 are close to nil, that his talent can be sth else. I am not a math guru, that`s why I am a Physical Education student..lol

eeehhhmm are we going a little off topic here don't you guys think, vilpu opened a trad in sokker international let's carry on there, feel sorry for wdp trying to put some order in the future star pulls...

Good point. I think there is nothing to argue, I am right as always:)

Next one to post on the same subject is gay.