Subject: [NT] Lithuania

good luck in this deciding game
go Canada

I stole this list from Cometer (Australia manager). Shows the key matches and times. I've added what Canada needs from these matches.

Lietuva - Canada -- 11:00
- Canada win or draw and we're in. Our GD is +25 atm - so a narrow defeat still leaves us with a decent shot.

Osterreich - BiH -- 12:00
- BiH win or draw and we're in.

-----------------------
If Canada loses and Austria wins, we're fighting for one of the 6 3rd place spots.

England - Scotland -- 13:00
- England win knocks Scotland out. Draw gives Scotland a shot with a +22. Win by Scotland puts them in.

Portugal - Latvija -- 13:00
- foregone conclusion Portugal will win and claim one of the 3rd place spots.

Ireland - Sweden -- 13:00
A point by Sweden puts them in. If Sweden loses the margin is important - currently +25 GD.

Uruguay - Indonesia -- 17:00
- foregone conclusion Uruguay will win and claim one of the 3rd place spots.

Venezuela - Hong Kong -- 18:00
- win by Venezuela is assured, but it will need to be huge (+15-17) to get them into the mix. +7 their current GD.

Colombia - Australia -- 19:00
- if Colombia takes a point, they are through. Australia is still mathematically alive, but would need to win by ~14-15 to get their +9 GD close. Not realistic given their opposition.

Peru - Guatemala -- 19:00
- a Peru win is assured, but it will need to be big (10-12) to help their GD, currently +12.

Al Maghrib - Cymru -- 21:30
- a win by Wales is assured. It will need to be big (10-12) to help their GD, currently +12.

Lets see if we lose and Austria win, what will happen.

2. Slovenija 18 +10 (Vs Singapore) 2nd spot
2. Österreich 16 +17 (Vs Bosnia) 19 + 18 2nd spot
3. Sverige 18 +25 (Vs Ireland) 21 + 26
3. Colombia 18 +18 (Vs Australia) 21 + 19
3. Portugal 16 +34 (Vs Latvija) 19 + 35
3. Uruguay 15 +36 (Vs Indonesia) 18 + 37
3. Canada 18 +25 (Vs Lietuva) 18 + 24
-----------------------------------------------
3. Perú 15 +12 (Vs Guatemala) 18 + huge GD to be thru, not likely to happen
3. Cymru 15 +12 (Vs Al Maghrib) 18 + same like Peru
3. Scotland 17 +22 (Vs England) 17 England wins
4. Australia 15 +11 (Vs Colombia) A win will help Canada but won't qualify them unless they beat them with like 10 GD
3. Venezuela 15 +7 (Vs Hong Kong) Venezuela will win but it won't be enough

It means we are thru but I am afraid of England - Scotland match. England is a clear favorite but if Scotland even get a point with +22 they have a huge chance to knock Canada out if Canada lose with more then 2 GD.

After all I am positive whatever happen Canada will qualify.
Damn I can't be online to watch it live.

Best of Luck Seca and Canada.
Hopefully see you in the group stages :)

I'd love to wish Scotland luck, but I can't honestly do that until our fate is secure. :)

Both teams are certainly amoungst the top 32 in Sokker, and the WC would be incomplete without either.

Portugal and Uruguay really can't screw things up. Colombia and Sweden have tough matches ... but I kind of expect them to take care of business - which would leave two spots.

Scotland could certainly get things done against England, though their striker situation puts them in a rough spot. England should be motivated to play it tough, since a 1st basket finish isn't out of the question. With no disrespect intended, I'd be a little surprised if Scotland pulled it off.

The games that scare me are Wales and Peru. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Wales hung a dozen or more on Al Maghrib. Al Maghrib only has 2 users - it's a glorified bot team. Al Maghrib is averaging ... averaging ... 13 goals conceded per match. Wales put 10 on them in the first meeting and could easily do better.

Peru will have a tougher time scoring a couple touchdowns against Guatemala, but it's not out of the question. If we happen to lose by 2 or 3 the task becomes that much easier for them.

I would really prefer to get the job done in our match and not have to sit on the edge of my chair the rest of the day. :P

Underway. :)

In matches like this I usually try to go with the best 11. (The France WC match was a good example.) But the Parker injury affected this decision. I feel compelled to play more defensively, even though this is exactly what the opponent is expecting. This means some of our in-form offensive players (Wang, O’Hara) sit, and some questionable form (or just plain questionable) defenders are in.

Thought for a while about a 541, but I couldn’t see how we’d get any ball pressure. Think we’d have spent the whole game in our end, and with Clemens (no offense) I don’t believe we’d survive that. What I settled on is more of a 451, though a very defensive one.

The back tier of the midfield is focused entirely on ball recovery, and it’s hoped they will provide the ball pressure. It has gaps which are intended to direct Lithuania play into the middle of the pitch. Our defense backs way off - we’ve played an aggressive defense throughout qualifying - I’m hopeful that will buy us a little respect in this one. The fear is that if they don’t pull back, or if our defensive midfield has trouble with ball recovery, we will end up stuck in our own end.

The back line might look a little weird. I have the defenders almost playing in pairs (trying to double team their strikers). The hope is that if the tackles are missed, either the wing-man will recover the ball, or the striker will be forced out wide to a more difficult shooting position.

The back-line and defensive midfield all have DEF orders (7 in total - no NT training bonus this week :D). Tinkered with the idea of MID orders on the D Ms (to try and illicit more through balls), but decided it wasn’t worth the risk (MIDs tend to pass back more which we want to avoid, MID order would also complicate injury replacement). Hopefully the D Ms will not kick the ball out too much, and will maybe launch some lobs for Amado to catch up to.

Opposition wingers are potentially a problem. The only defense is if the D Ms are in the passing lanes. I’ve tried hard to get them in the right spot, but it’s tricky. If Lithuania uses the tactic they did against Poland (think the chances of this are less with Kuèinskas injured) which had 2 O Ms and 2 wingers, then we’re in trouble, and just have to hope the 4 in the box can out muscle their striker.

That was all about defense. The offense? Well it looks a little meager. Only 3 players in front of the ball. I don’t think it will hurt as much as it sounds. I think we’ve been suffering a little from “dilution” - too many chances going through our 2nd or 3rd options. Won’t be a problem in this one - everything will go through our first (only) option. :D

We’re going to need some luck Unfortunately, we can’t expect our keeper to stand on his head. So the breaks are going to have to come from somewhere else.

Line-Up
Clemens
Wagenaar, Villaneuva, Fichaud, Malhotra
Sebrango, Bradshaw, Laforest
Omar, Iginla
Amado

Bench
Stalteri
Dehere
Neil
O’Hara
Wang

No substitutions are planned. All the orders are used for red card protection.

the good news is that we played with them, that was a very good showing everywhere except on the scoresheet

Agreed.

Nothing new really. They had two quality scoring chances and buried them both. Added a low percentage distance marker for good measure. We had 3 quality scoring chances but only managed to convert one. Shots even, possession even, territory even, more quality chances for us, ... and a -2.

Despite the injury to Amado (which was a big blow) things were looking good after the first half. We were up a goal, up a man, and they'd used their whole bench.

I was pleased with the tactic. The defensive midfield was in good position to deal with Lithuania's midfield. The tight 4 at the back gave us a reasonable chance of fighting off the clustered Lithuania strikers. Iginla and Omar were in space, and Wang was pretty well positioned for the lone striker. I kind of wonder if 2 DMs would have been more effective, but most of the Lithuania service was aerial - would also have let opposition mids scamper down the sidelines.

I think Clemens was the right choice. There were a number of balls in the box to sweep up. Managed a couple of saves.

Omar was the biggest disappointment for me. To often he ran with the ball until tackled when there was a wide open striker in spitting distance. Divine PM is soooo handy. :P It was also disappointing Wang couldn't convert more of his chances, but I've grown used to that.

The -2 isn't the worst thing. Leaves us ahead of Scotland should they draw. Means Peru and Wales need +11 or +12 in their matches to catch us. If Ireland could win by 3 we could sneak past Sweden.

The waiting begins. Next up: BiH - Austria.

BiH - Austria is about to start. I'm worried BiH will use their 352 again. Austrian manager is found of winger and would likely cut them up.

short wait :P

SPOILER

And ... we're through. :)

BiH did play the 352, but Austria's forwards were placed a little conservative, so the wide mids passed the ball early a lot of the time instead of penetrating the flank. Even so, Austria had the better quality scoring chances. BiH's first goal was pretty soft, and second goal was a long shot.

Congrats on qualifying. There is justice in sokker sometimes :p.

Thanks. :) It would have been nice to earn it, rather then backing in, but we'll take it.

As for justice, I'd say there is a limited amount of that going around. :) Australia took points from both Mexico and Argentina, two of Sokker's monsters, yet will likely miss the WC due a heinous result against Bulgaria. It remains to be seen if Scotland, another quality hard-luck team, will make it to the dance.

I stopped complaining about the "new team" issue a while ago. Perhaps it's time to push that again. I think Nin still harps about it whenever he gets the chance. :)

Congratulations on qualifying! Well done. I just watched the game and thought that you had a brilliant tactic - a little more skill or form from our d or goalie and it may have been a different result in this game.

What did I say??

El_Scorpio komu Seca 2008-01-17 09:09:33
I believe you can do it. You win over the Greece and Austria got Liethuaniu and Bosnu. Bosna is able to defeat Austia, or at least take them a point for draw... Good luck

Yeah, you made it man!! ;) GL in WC