Subject: World Cup Qualifiers

Team Matches Wins Draws Losses Goals Points
1. Polska 0 0 0 0 0-0 0
2. Deutschland 0 0 0 0 0-0 0
3. Srbija 0 0 0 0 0-0 0
4. South Africa 0 0 0 0 0-0 0
5. Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0-0 0
6. Ísland 0 0 0 0 0-0 0

First off, we're playing Deutschland in a friendly today and it turns out that they're in our qualifying group. I wouldn't read too much into today's result since we've got a number of players missing, but they're going to be very difficult opponents.

Secondly, we have the great fortune of being drawn with Polska. :(

Unless we can somehow get extremely lucky, we'll be playing for third place. There are 13 qualifying groups and 32 teams go to the WC, so I expect that some of the best third placed teams will qualify.

The key matches for us will likely be the two against Srbija, assuming the others go as expected. We could qualify if we can do a double against Srbija.

Rankings:
1 Polska
16 Deutschland
29 Srbija
51 South Africa
57 Nigeria
70 Island

Very tough group. Poland could trounce your goal differential - making it difficult to be one of the top 3rd place teams. Will be an uphill battle to qualify. :S

Agreed.

Nin has also pointed out in the main forum that the seeding process is flawed. The new countries have been seeded third in their groups, effectively making their groups very easy.

Third placed teams in other groups, like ours, have very little chance of qualifying.

It's not a new problem - I complained about how new teams are considered for qualifying 4 seasons ago. Luck of the draw is an essential step one for qualifying.

I guess one can hope Shadow gets in for Poland again and does some weird things. Otherwise South Africa will likely have to take full points from Serbia, and somehow sneak a point somewhere against Germany.

Not impossible. :) But a tough road.

Here's an analysis of the strength of the opposition we face in qualifying. I'm looking at the marks recorded by players in the teams' last 3 matches (ignoring those that played less than 45 minutes).

South Africa
Keeper - 77
Def - Median 51.0, Average 48.9
Mid - Median 52.5, Average 52.1
Att - Median 56.0, Average 55.5

Srbija
Keeper - 87
Def - Median 48.5, Average 47.7
Mid - Median 58.0, Average 58.3
Att - Median 62.0, Average 60.3

Nigeria
Keeper - 79
Def - Median 49.0, Average 48.6
Mid - Median 49.5, Average 49.5
Att - Median 53.5, Average 53.0

Island
Keeper - 61
Def - Median 46.0, Average 47.4
Mid - Median 42.0, Average 43.2
Att - Median 54.5, Average 56.0

Deutschland
Keeper - 89
Def - Median 59.0, Average 59.2
Mid - Median 62.5, Average 61.4
Att - Median 67.0, Average 65.3

Polska
Keeper - 85
Def - Median 63.0, Average 66.1
Mid - Median 78.0, Average 76.2
Att - Median 80.0, Average 80.1

We know that marks don't mean much by themselves, but it gives us an estimate of the strength of opposition we're facing.

Polska - Ok, forget about them
Deutschland - Vastly stronger than us. We played well to lose only 1-4 recently. To get a point will require one of those freak results that happen from time to time.
Srbija - Stronger than us in attack and midfield but we have a slight edge in defence. They'll be favourites to beat us, but we've got a chance.
Nigeria - Stronger than I expected but we have the edge. Mustn't be overconfident and make sure we get all the points here.
Island - Their attack is similar to ours, but we have the advantage in defence and their midfield looks weak. We should get the points here, barring one of those freak results.

The trick is going to Srbija, assuming everything else goes as expected. Somehow we have to take maximum points against them to have any chance of getting through as one of the best 3rd placed teams.

As it turns out, our first match (this week) is against Srbija. Their coach has been re-elected, so we can't rely on inexperience to help us.

Well, how about that? We're off to a great start with a come from behind 2-1 win over Srbija!

In the 64th minute we hit the bar from a corner. 3 minutes later we were a goal down and I thought the writing was on the wall. Only inside the last 10 minutes did we equalise and then score a quick winner after the restart. :)

In all, it was a very evenly matched encounter. We were shaded in possession (48/52), territory (48/52) and shots (10/11), which wasn't bad considering the relative strengths of the teams.

Before the match, I was a bit concerned about the midfield. I had planned to start Makhanya but he picked up an injury midweek. Chacho was out suspended. Madigage was still injured and Mabizela, though back from injury, was in tragic form. Thankfully it didn't count against him too much as it was his break on the wing that set up the equaliser.

Nuro Juwayeyi scored his second goal in two games for the NT, having gone goaless in his first 13 matches. Behr added to his massive NT tally. I look forward to having more strikers that can hit the target from closer than the penalty spot though!

I was happy enough with the defence, except for a problem when the wide defenders were pulled out of position. This often left us vulnerable. There's no doubt that Srbija had some good wasted chances that could've won them the match.

Next week we're up against Island and will be looking to consolidate our position before the two tough matches against Deutschland (hammered 0-7 this week by Polska) and Polska.
(edited)

congrats. fortune left us today.
now, our chances to qualify are close to zero, still we will fight till the last minute of the 10th game. good luck in following matches.

My two mids were not missed today.

Just watch SA go when they return and am also training them this season.

Good result mate.

Congrats!

Again we had no luck.

My tactics was really good I think, but those cards ruined it.

Nice match from Sa :)

Thanks guys.

Vilpu, you caught me out with switching your winger to the other side but those two players sent off never gave you a decent chance to make use of it.

Nice match from South Africa. :) The help from the referee certainly didn't hurt (though I suspect South Africa would have won it anyway - especially the way Guðgeirsson played - yikes!).

This isn't meant as criticism - I found Baloyi's placement a little curious. What were you trying to achieve with him?

Great start to qualifying - nice work by the manager. :)

And I think you just answered my question while I was posting. :D

Thanks Seca.

Yep, I thought the winger posed the only real threat and took a chance with Baloyi to counter him. That's the risk you take when you position your players based on what your opponent might do. :)

Long way to go still, and have to figure out how to keep the goals down when we go up against Poland (and Germany)!