Subject: Hattrick

Knap staaltje forum superioriteitsissues..

How Did I Lose???
Geschreven door petebs
How many times people that like to help other users, have to answer to a topic named "How did I lose this game?"? And how many times can they convince the person that asks? Right...

For most authors of these topics, their loss of points will always be random, even though 95% of the times, it is not. So, I'll try to explain here, in a few lines, why the majority of these games are not Random games.

I would also like to thank the user Alex_DeLarge, for his time and share of knowledge.


Everyone that has a good knowledge of HT (or at least sufficient knowledge to mean they’re no longer n00bs), and likes to spend some time in the forums, knows that, on Wednesday and on Saturday, sooner or later, the same old topic will appear: “How did I lose this game?”.

This is one of the most frequently asked questions in Hattrick forums (at least in Portugal we see these a lot), matched only by questions like “How do I get my team in shape?”. In this topic you often see things that aren’t exactly pleasing on the eye, since the manager lost the game that he was sure it would be a 4-0 victory for him… So what do we see when this question is asked?


• Disbelief in the result;
• Incomprehension of the arguments of other managers that try to explain the result;
• Incapacity to read the game facts as they really were;
• Bad mood from the person that opens the topic;
• More incomprehension and incapacity to read the game;
• Announces that the manager will be quitting the game;
• Rudeness to managers that were only trying to help;
• Blaming of the “Swedish” :);
• Egocentricity when it comes to random events in the game: “I have random games everytime!”
• Accusations of cheating, being the helping manager that tried to help, the very cheaters:
• The topic is closed, maybe with a ban or two, and in fairness the author didn’t learn anything, and now he will never come back to the forums to resolve his doubts. To this manager, his loss of points will always be random.

And is the manager right? Can random be used as an excuse for this unpredictable results? Is he the one to blame for all those cup game losses and failed promotions?

The answer, in my opinion, it’s a clear NO. Random cannot have such an important role as the “ignorant” users of Hattrick want to believe. Hattrick is, above all, a game of probabilities, and could never be taken seriously if a truly RANDOM GAME happened in every 10 games of a team, for example.

So, what can we consider random?

First, we have to define exactly what random is, and explain the difference between that and an unpredictable game:

• Unpredictable Result – A game in which the result is more or less explainable, although the loss of points is unfair. This kind of game makes up 97% of the topics opened on this theme;

• Random Result – The so called “1 in a Million” game. It happens less than 1% of the time. However, sometimes there are other results so strange that, to be fair, we should consider a 5% chance for this game to happen.

Bear in mind that, without the use of additional tactics, 35% of goal chances will be from the central area, while 25% represent each side of the attack, leaving 15% for free kicks and penalties.


Let us consider a typical (if there is such a thing) game from the Portuguese VIII Division, that opposes team A and B, with the following ratings:


Team A
MF: weak (high)
RD: inadequate (very high)
CD: weak (very high)
LD: inadequate (high)
RA: passable (high)
CA: poor (very high)
LA: passable (high)

Team B
MF: weak (low)
RD: weak (low)
CD: weak (high)
LD: weak (high)
RA: weak (very low)
CA: weak (low)
LA: poor (very high)

This is the typical game of “How did I lose this game” topics. There’s a far superior team in every sector (except the sector CA-CD), by many sub-levels in each sector. Victory seems assured, yet the final score is 2-2. Rip-of? Random?

Let us analyse what at a first glance can’t be explained:

The first thing we have to do is to look at the midfield. It was won by Team A, but not by much. Here it is the first mistake of most users: Midfield is not everything! It is important, no doubt, but other factors will have a great influence on the final score.

After this analysis, we can conclude that each team should have goal opportunities. However, for Team A, this number can change between 3 and 7 opportunities, while Team B may have between 2 and 6 opportunities. Second big mistake: The number of opportunities varies, it can’t be calculated with precision. Therefore, the weakest team may have more goal scoring chances than the strongest team.

Now, let us analyze the probability of scoring the goal opportunity. Once again Team A has the advantage in this aspect, with a 30% probability of scoring at least 2 goals, and a 20% chance of scoring 3 goals. Team B, on the other side, has a 35% probability of not scoring any goals, so a 2-0 result would, in fact, be possible.

However, the probability of this team scoring a goal is even greater, with a 40% chance, and the probability of scoring 2 goals is still 20%, so a 2-2 result may very well happen. If you add to this the probability of the set pieces, that are not calculated in this article, and you reach the conclusion that 2-3 can very well happen, it’s not random.

And so, with a few calculations, we can see that Team A has a 58% chance of winning the game, 20% of drawing, and 22% of losing. At a first glance one would say that this is a good probability, but really there is a 42% chance of losing points in this game, meaning that in every 10 games, Team A will lose points in almost half the games (4 to 5 games).

Of course anyone can say that the opposing team made much worse ratings than him, and so we would have much more chances of winning, so we feels robbed. But he/she still didn’t get it: You need to have an extremely high probability of winning (I’m talking 90-95%) so, in case you don’t win, we can consider that defeat or draw as a random game.

And never forget: Hattrick is a probability game. As long as there is a 0,01% chance of happening, it may (and eventually will) happen.

Now it’s my turn to ask: Is it so strange to have lost this game?

Om dat allemaal te doorworstelen, moet ge toch een HT-passie hebben. :)

dit is gewoon een van de zovele pogingen om aan te tonen dat hattrick niet puur middenveld is en niet puur wiskundig is. Helaas voor hen allemaal, HT is pure wiskunde en het middenveldgehalte blijft belachelijk belangrijk

Hallo, ik heb een 7 op 9 gehaald met steeds een slechter middenveld. :p

jep, vandaag nogmaals gemerkt

vandaag had'k veel betere verdediging en aanval, maar veel zwakker middenveld. Wist dat dit zo zou zijn, dus heb ik counteraanval gespeeld. Resultaat: 5-0 op m'n doos gekregen. Lang leve de ubersterkte van het middenveld.
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hoeveel slechter? ;) matig hoog en redelijk laag zijn nie veel verschil eh :p
en mss hebt ge counter gespeeld? (doe ik ook redelijk veel)

tijd voor daar nog eens in groep een topic te hi-jacken en dan na een stuk op 20 posts plots over sokker te beginnen: 'he, speel jij nog altijd dat ander spel?' - 'wat' - 'sokker, waar ge uw mannekes zo in 2 D kon zien' - 'ja, met dat ik hier mijn ploeg op stand-by heb gezet...'

en dan alleman: he, ik speel da ook!

Vorige zondag had ik 40% balbezit, speelde ik geen counter, en won ik 1-2.

Ik moet er wel bij vertellen dat mijn tegenstander, behalve zijn middenveld, niets voorstelde.

das de enige keer dat counter nog iets voorstelt.

ik speel altijd 5-3-2 en op counter ... ik zou begot niet weten of ik ga winnen of verliezen ...

Ik zal mijn match nog eens laten zien van vorige zondag:

SeMTeX Tjolinge FC
Middenveld briljant (hoog) zwak (heel laag)
Rechterverdediging goed (hoog) goed (heel laag)
Centrale verdediging goed (heel laag) uitstekend (laag)
Linkerverdediging redelijk (hoog) redelijk (heel hoog)
Rechteraanval goed (heel laag) goed (heel laag)
Centrale aanval redelijk (laag) goed (laag)
Linkeraanval goed (hoog) slecht (laag)

Onrechtstreekse vrije trappen
Verdediging matig (heel hoog) matig (heel hoog)
Aanval zwak (heel hoog) zwak (heel hoog)

Type wedstrijd normaal (verborgen)
Tactiek normaal normaal
Tactische vaardigheid (geen tactiek) (geen tactiek)


Dit zijn wel enorme verschillen (middenveldoverheersing dus) en toch speel ik gelijkspel 2-2
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:)

net nu ik wat gefrustreerd begon te raken over sokker, nog eens een discussie gehad op ht.

Wat begon als een opmerking over algemeen dalende forumactiviteit eindigde in moddergooien en beschuldigingen van veranderingsangst en beschuldigingen dat het geen waar is. Nergens anders, behalve daar:)

Op welke leeftijd beginnen de spelers alweer af te takelen?

Laat maar, heb het gevonden.
Voor de geïnteresseerden:

Afname in vaardigheden
Wanneer een speler de 30 nadert, verliest hij elke week een beetje van zijn vaardigheden. Hoe groot deze afname is, hangt af van zijn leeftijd en zijn huidige vaardigheidsniveau. Hoe hoger dit niveau, hoe groter de afname. Hoe ouder de speler, hoe groter de afname.
Spelers op de hoogste vaardigheidsniveaus, rond goddelijk, kunnen zelfs op jongere leeftijd een afname in vaardigheid ondervinden. Hierdoor is verdere training op die vaardigheid minder aantrekkelijk.

12 op 12 met team michoal vandaag gewonnen tegen een tittelfavoriet



ben super blij met men ploeg op hattrick


alleen nog op sokker geduld hebben met men ploeg