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Subject: Wetter
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Cherup to
All
Ist das Wetter in Sokker eigentlich vom Vortag irgendwie abhängig, bzw. beeinflusst?
nach allem was ich weiß, nein.
defintiv gibts in sokker keine irgendwie echte wetterssimulation wo hoch- und tiefdruckgebiete von einer engine simuliert werden. und natürlich auch keine jahreszeiten oder klimazonen.
das wetter ist für alle vereine innerhalb einer region gleich. forestman, wohl der größter meterologe in sokker (natürlich engländer) hat in einer empirischen studie nachgewiesen, dass niederschläge und wolkenbildung zusammenhängen. ganz wie im echten leben. und dass die wetterbedingungen in sokker über eine saison hinweg so ungefähr einer normalverteilung entsprechen:
optimale bedingungen sind selten, genauso ganz schlechte, meistens herrschen mittelmäßige voraussetzungen. - für einzelne regionen kann das natürlich ganz anders anschauen und natürlich hängt auch viel davon ab, ob man an schlechten tagen daheim oder auswärts spielt.
defintiv gibts in sokker keine irgendwie echte wetterssimulation wo hoch- und tiefdruckgebiete von einer engine simuliert werden. und natürlich auch keine jahreszeiten oder klimazonen.
das wetter ist für alle vereine innerhalb einer region gleich. forestman, wohl der größter meterologe in sokker (natürlich engländer) hat in einer empirischen studie nachgewiesen, dass niederschläge und wolkenbildung zusammenhängen. ganz wie im echten leben. und dass die wetterbedingungen in sokker über eine saison hinweg so ungefähr einer normalverteilung entsprechen:
optimale bedingungen sind selten, genauso ganz schlechte, meistens herrschen mittelmäßige voraussetzungen. - für einzelne regionen kann das natürlich ganz anders anschauen und natürlich hängt auch viel davon ab, ob man an schlechten tagen daheim oder auswärts spielt.
forestman, wohl der größter meterologe in sokker (natürlich engländer) hat in einer empirischen studie nachgewiesen, dass niederschläge und wolkenbildung zusammenhängen. ganz wie im echten leben. und dass die wetterbedingungen in sokker über eine saison hinweg so ungefähr einer normalverteilung entsprechen
echt?
Hast einen Link dazu?!
echt?
Hast einen Link dazu?!
hier ist forestmans posts in dem er das ergebnis seiner studie vorstellt. den thread dazu findest du in sokker england.
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OK, Here are some preliminary results on my weather Analysis.
1. Probability of types of Weather
Weather has two settings what I will call "cloud setting" and "weather" settings.
Each has the following settings (from best weather to worst)
Cloud Settings
No Clouds
Sparse Clouds
Moderate Clouds
Partly Cloudy
Heavy Clouds
Weather Settings
Hot
Warm
Cool
Drizzle
Shower
Heavy Shower.
Now here is the interesting bit - there is a relationship between the two. The cloud type seems to determine the weather setting. For example, you will only get a hot day when there are no clouds.
By doing a load of analysis of over 200 different weather events, I can give a pretty accurate basis for the probability of each type of weather. When I have some spare time I will increase those numbers, but I wouldn't expect the numbers to change substantially.
Cloud Settings
No Clouds - 20%
Sparse Clouds - 15%
Moderate Clouds - 35%
Partly Cloudy - 15%
Heavy Clouds - 15%
i.e. 20% of days appear to have No Clouds as the "cloud weather"
Weather Settings
Each "cloud setting" impacts the type of weather - as detailed below....
Days with No Clouds - 25% Hot, 75% Warm
Sparse Clouds - 99% Warm, 1% Cool (maybe 100% warm?)
Moderate Clouds - 50% Warm, 50% Cool
Partly Cloudy - 100% Drizzle
Heavy Clouds - 60% Shower, 40% Heavy Shower
Therefore, you've guess it - multiply the two together and here is the probability of each weather type.
Hot ~5%
Warm ~47%
Cool ~18%
Drizzle ~15%
Shower ~9%
Heavy Shower ~6%
2. Impact on attendances
This is the tougher part to analyse. There are many factors that impact the attendance at games - these include the mood of your fans, your opponents fans, the size of your fanclub and the opponents fan club, the presence of national team players, the type of game and the weather. Therefore to try and keep the analysis accurate I looked at games played by mcoi or forest reserves in the Premiership. Both teams have a similar number of fans, similar results and therefore fan mood. Both tend to play a NT player. Also, it can be argued that the Premiership has a pretty equal "quality" of teams making that area less. Games without full sell-outs were used (except for the one hot datapoint we had..)
This was the result...
There appears to be a substantial impact of the weather type. The correlation was stronger than cloud type & makes me pretty sure that cloud type impacts weather type which impacts the crowds:
Here were the average crowds at each type and the number of datapoints:
Hot: 28100 (1 - and sold out but 1st vs 2nd..)
Warm: 21918 (5)
Cool: 19241 (3)
Drizzle:14056 (4)
Shower: 16789 (2)
Heavy Shower: 12033 (2)
More information is needed here, but this suggests the following approximate, but substantial impact of the weather.
Hot: 100%
Warm: 90%
Cool:80%
Drizzle:70%
Showers:60%
Heavy Showers:50%
i.e. being unlucky with the weather can cost you substantially....
3. Stadium Design - mitigation
The final part is unanswered...
a) How much does a roof help avoid the drop in attendance?
b) Is it financially worth it.
This is work in progress. Any help in ascertaining this is much appreciated.
I hope that it is useful. It's been a while since I did any analysis (which oddly is what I was "famous" for back in 2004/05 for the oldies that remembered when we knew nothing!
forestman
-------
OK, Here are some preliminary results on my weather Analysis.
1. Probability of types of Weather
Weather has two settings what I will call "cloud setting" and "weather" settings.
Each has the following settings (from best weather to worst)
Cloud Settings
No Clouds
Sparse Clouds
Moderate Clouds
Partly Cloudy
Heavy Clouds
Weather Settings
Hot
Warm
Cool
Drizzle
Shower
Heavy Shower.
Now here is the interesting bit - there is a relationship between the two. The cloud type seems to determine the weather setting. For example, you will only get a hot day when there are no clouds.
By doing a load of analysis of over 200 different weather events, I can give a pretty accurate basis for the probability of each type of weather. When I have some spare time I will increase those numbers, but I wouldn't expect the numbers to change substantially.
Cloud Settings
No Clouds - 20%
Sparse Clouds - 15%
Moderate Clouds - 35%
Partly Cloudy - 15%
Heavy Clouds - 15%
i.e. 20% of days appear to have No Clouds as the "cloud weather"
Weather Settings
Each "cloud setting" impacts the type of weather - as detailed below....
Days with No Clouds - 25% Hot, 75% Warm
Sparse Clouds - 99% Warm, 1% Cool (maybe 100% warm?)
Moderate Clouds - 50% Warm, 50% Cool
Partly Cloudy - 100% Drizzle
Heavy Clouds - 60% Shower, 40% Heavy Shower
Therefore, you've guess it - multiply the two together and here is the probability of each weather type.
Hot ~5%
Warm ~47%
Cool ~18%
Drizzle ~15%
Shower ~9%
Heavy Shower ~6%
2. Impact on attendances
This is the tougher part to analyse. There are many factors that impact the attendance at games - these include the mood of your fans, your opponents fans, the size of your fanclub and the opponents fan club, the presence of national team players, the type of game and the weather. Therefore to try and keep the analysis accurate I looked at games played by mcoi or forest reserves in the Premiership. Both teams have a similar number of fans, similar results and therefore fan mood. Both tend to play a NT player. Also, it can be argued that the Premiership has a pretty equal "quality" of teams making that area less. Games without full sell-outs were used (except for the one hot datapoint we had..)
This was the result...
There appears to be a substantial impact of the weather type. The correlation was stronger than cloud type & makes me pretty sure that cloud type impacts weather type which impacts the crowds:
Here were the average crowds at each type and the number of datapoints:
Hot: 28100 (1 - and sold out but 1st vs 2nd..)
Warm: 21918 (5)
Cool: 19241 (3)
Drizzle:14056 (4)
Shower: 16789 (2)
Heavy Shower: 12033 (2)
More information is needed here, but this suggests the following approximate, but substantial impact of the weather.
Hot: 100%
Warm: 90%
Cool:80%
Drizzle:70%
Showers:60%
Heavy Showers:50%
i.e. being unlucky with the weather can cost you substantially....
3. Stadium Design - mitigation
The final part is unanswered...
a) How much does a roof help avoid the drop in attendance?
b) Is it financially worth it.
This is work in progress. Any help in ascertaining this is much appreciated.
I hope that it is useful. It's been a while since I did any analysis (which oddly is what I was "famous" for back in 2004/05 for the oldies that remembered when we knew nothing!
forestman
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